Should You Talk to Your Kids About Your Money Struggles?

Getty Images Let's say you're having some money troubles. Maybe your spouse has been laid off; maybe you're under a mountain of debt. Whatever the situation, it's affecting your whole family, but you're not sure how much information you should share with your children -- or if you should tell them anything about the situation at all. Here are the most common arguments, pro and con.

Is Now The Time To Buy Oil?

Stock exchanges are not alone in seeing prices pull back lately. In at least one case, however, that is actually a good thing.

Drivers both state-side and abroad have no doubt felt the pain at the pump subsiding this fall. In the United States, many gas stations are now hawking unleaded for under $3.00 a gallon -- a welcome sight in my eyes, at least. Those lower prices have come at a cost to some portfolios, however.

Oil prices have been steadily declining since making highs in June, falling from north of $104 to around $81 at the time this article was written. Considering that nearly every industry is affected by oil in some way, this means there's a good chance some of your holdings have fallen in tandem.

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Naturally, oil explorers, producers, and those along the supply chain have been hit the hardest. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the world's largest oil company by revenue, has fallen 11% since July. In contrast, the S&P 500 is only down 2.6% in the same time period.

The big question now: have prices reached a bottom, and is it time to go long big oil?

A recent pop in energy stock prices across the board leads me to believe that the answers may be: Yes. Analysts and CEOs are coming out publicly in support of many oil companies during this earnings season, showing that a buying opportunity may be presenting itself in this slump.

This perceived value is making itself known predominantly in beat-down price-to-earnings ratios. Many drillers, service providers and the like are trading at single-digit P/E multiples, garnering the attention of both fund managers and research shops alike.

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So how can we profit from a potential upswing?

Don't complicate things by trying to pick individual names or playing with futures. I suggest going with an ETF that is heavy on the super majors. Why is that? Simple: the larger oil companies are well-capitalized and have long histories of weathering these cycles.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLE) meets that requirement beautifully and also stands out as the largest energy ETF.

XLE peaked in June at $101.52, only to fall to $77.51 just four months later. Since that low, however, the ETF bounced up to $86 in just one week of heavy buying.

Investors are putting their money where their mouths are, with inflows into XLE amounting to $1.1 billion in October so far. In addition, research arms of firms like Bank of America and Jefferies have hit the newswires this past week, reiterating buy ratings in many of the companies that make up XLE.

Ideally, I'd like to see XLE head south towards that $77.51 low again, only to receive more buying and bounce again. This would show that real support exists at that level. I can't say if oil prices are done stretching just yet, so I see this as a safer entry method.

Risks to Consider: Timing oil markets is difficult -- the commodity is driven by seemingly every factor under the sun. Fundamentals, geopolitics, international regulatory bodies and a slew of other variables all weigh into the price. Waiting to see if XLE heads lower may mean you may miss the trade entirely. But if XLE reaches its recent bottom again and falls through, then investors could be looking at some nasty losses before it levels out again.

Action To Take --> With oil prices now at two-year lows, many analysts and investors are focusing more attention on the commodity. XLE's recent bounce has me looking for a good entry if buying support holds. In the meantime, I'll be enjoying a heavier wallet and a fuller gas tank.

World Series strikes out with lowest Game 1 ratings in history

The ratings for Game 1 of the World Series weren't a home run. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Game 1 of the 2014 World Series was no "royal" in terms of the ratings.

Tuesday night's opening game of the Major League Baseball World Series brought in 12.1 million viewers for Fox, making it the lowest rated game 1 and the fifth lowest rated World Series game of all time.

The game, which saw the San Francisco Giants stomp the Kansas City Royals 7-1, rated a 3.4 among viewers aged 18 to 49, down 15% from last year's Series, a match-up of the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals.

Alternatively, this year's Series includes the small market Royals. They haven't been in the World Series since "Back to the Future" was in theaters.

Kansas City tuned in. Game 1 scored a huge 48.2 overnight in Kansas City. In San Francisco, however, it rated a 29.3 overnight.

These ratings weren't a home run for Fox, but they didn't go down swinging either. The 12.1 million viewers meant Fox still beat most other programming on Tuesday, and the network actually won the night in 18-49 demo.

The network has been struggling so far this season with some of its highly marketed shows like "Red Band Society" and "Utopia" failing to find an audience, so it's safe to say Fox hopes the numbers grow over the potential seven game series.

The World Series opener ranked behind last June's NBA Finals Game 1, which brought in 14.9 million viewers, and last week's Thursday night regular season NBA game, which brought in 16.1 million viewers alone.

3 Big-Volume Stocks to Trade for Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

 

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Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."



 

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.



 

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

 

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Spirit Airlines

 

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) provides low-fare airline services, operating approximately 250 daily flights to 50 destinations in the U.S., Caribbean and Latin America. This stock closed up 3.8% at $58.96 in Monday's trading session.

 

Monday's Volume: 3.19 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 956,275

Volume % Change: 207%

 

From a technical perspective, SAVE ripped higher here with strong upside volume flows. This stock has been under heavy selling pressure over the last month and change, with shares falling from its high of $74 to its recent low of $52.75. That downtrend has produced multiple trading sessions of violent downside volatility, as shares were consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of SAVE have now started to rebound off that $52.75 low and it's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if SAVE manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $58.99 to its 200-day moving average of $60.25 with high volume.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SAVE as long as it's trending above Monday's intraday low of $56.83 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 956,275 shares. If that breakout develops soon, then SAVE will set up to re-fill its previous gap-down-day zone from earlier this month that started near $66.

 

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Gannett

 

Gannett (GCI) operates as a media and marketing solutions company in the U.S. and internationally. This stock closed up 5% at $29.08 in Monday's trading session.

 

Monday's Volume: 4.65 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.28 million

Volume % Change: 125%

 

From a technical perspective, GCI ripped sharply higher here above-average volume. This spike higher on Monday is quickly pushing shares of GCI within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if GCI manages to take out its 200-day moving average of $29.37 to some more resistance at $29.80 with high volume.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GCI as long as it's trending above Monday's intraday low of $27.85 or above $27 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 2.28 million shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then GCI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 50-day moving average of $31.47 to $32.90. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give GCI a chance to tag $34.

 

Must Read: How to Trade the Market's Most Active Stocks

 

Olympic Steel

 

Olympic Steel (ZEUS) processes and distributes metal products primarily in the U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico and Mexico. This stock closed up 1.9% at $19.07 in Monday's trading session.

 

Monday's Volume: 60,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 36,985

Volume % Change: 85%

 

From a technical perspective, ZEUS trended modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending over the last month and change, with shares moving lower from its high of $24.35 to its new 52-week low of $17. During that move, shares of ZEUS have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That sharp downside volatility pushed shares of ZEUS into extremely oversold territory, since its relative strength index reading tagged a reading of 10. Shares of ZEUS have now started to bounce off oversold levels and it's now quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if ZEUS manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $19.54 to $20.41 with high volume.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ZEUS as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $18 or above its 52-week low of $17 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 36,985 shares. If that breakout develops soon, then ZEUS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 50-day moving average of $21.78 or $23.

 

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

 

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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

 

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

 

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

1 More Advantage Apple Pay Has Over The Competition

Source: Apple.

There are already plenty of reasons why Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) new Apple Pay service, set to launch today, looks poised to succeed where all others before it have failed. Apple Pay's economics, security, and experience all appear far more promising than what's currently available in the market.

But there's one more thing.

Less regulatory burden
According to The Wall Street Journal, Apple will face significantly less regulatory burden than rivals like eBay's PayPal or Google Wallet. Apple won't need to set up anti-money laundering compliance programs, which are costly and time-consuming. Such programs are required for companies that offer financial services where money is being stored.

Source: Google.

Since Apple Pay is not storing funds, and instead only transmitting tokenized payment information, it's only considered a "payment enabler" and is free from these regulatory requirements. Thanks to its broad range of partnerships with all of the major financial institutions, including banks and payment networks, these partners operate the underlying payment infrastructure while Apple only facilitates payments. Apple is not directly involved in the movement of funds, which is where the regulatory oversight typically comes into play.

Leave P2P to the other companies
In contrast, services like Google Wallet and PayPal do store funds and allow users to pay with their existing balances. PayPal accounts have always been like extensions of bank accounts, where users can keep funds for later use with online purchases. Google Wallet similarly stores value, which can be used online or sent to friends and family.

In fact, most of the recent payment services function this way, including Amazon.com Payments, in part to enable peer-to-peer, or P2P, payments. A wide range of start-ups is attempting to tackle P2P payments, including Venmo (whose parent company Braintree has since been acquired by eBay) and Square.

Source: Apple.

The P2P payments market continues to evolve as people seek more modern ways to transmit funds between friends and family (paper checks are just a wee bit antiquated in 2014), and P2P transactions volume could hit an estimated $86 billion in the U.S. alone by 2018. But Apple's not trying to address the P2P market, despite its size. Instead, Apple wants to improve the payment process for purchases, which is a much larger market at $12 billion in transactions in the U.S. daily.

Since the P2P market is an easier nut to crack and there are plenty of offerings, Apple has less to bring to the table here. Ignoring P2P and pursuing the broader payments market with less regulatory burden is yet another way Apple is maximizing its odds of success.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

H&R Block Invests $3 Million in Teaching Teens About Money

Shutterstock In a new program dubbed the "H&R Block Budget Challenge," the world's largest tax services company is offering $3 million to help kids get smarter about money matters. As H&R Block (HRB) explains, "By learning strong budgeting skills and fiscal discipline early, kids can gain the knowledge and confidence to manage their own financial future." To help that process, Block has set up a free online game that schoolteachers can use to improve teen financial literacy. Real Life, Online Within the program, students take on the role of recent college graduates, gainfully employed and equipped with "a regular paycheck, a checking account [and] a 401(k) savings account." Students must then use their income and assets to navigate situations that should be familiar to any adult, such as "paying bills, managing expenses, saving money, investing in retirement, paying taxes and more." Points can be earned for "maximizing 401(k) savings, paying bills on time and responding correctly to quiz questions." Conversely, students who trip up and leave themselves open to paying late fees on bills, overdraft fees for overdrawing their accounts, and finance charges for carrying too much credit card debt will see their scores hurt. For bonus points, students can take quizzes to test their knowledge of financial concepts over the course of the game. Teamwork Pays Off Classrooms play as a team, scored for the average performance of students within each classroom, and competing with other student classrooms for a total of as much as $3 million in potential grants and scholarships. These break down like so: 60 classroom grants worth up to $5,000 apiece. 132 opportunities for student scholarships of $20,000 each. One grand prize scholarship of $100,000. Periodic student incentives that can be won during game-play. When you add all those up, H&R Block may end up paying out slightly more than $3 million from this program. Each classroom has the potential to win a total of two grants based on good performance in the competition -- one awarded midway through the competition and one at the program's conclusion. (It began Oct. 3, and the final period ends April 16.) Individual students can also win scholarships -- with 22 available for the highest individual scorers in each of the program's six sessions. (Only one win per student.) And the best-performing student over the competition can win the grand prize scholarship of $100,000. High school teachers (grades nine-12) wanting to participate in the H&R Block Budget Challenge can register online. Both public and private schools are eligible to enter the program -- and indeed, Block is even making the Budget Challenge available to home-schoolers (who can win scholarships, but not classroom grants). The Upshot For H&R Block, this program sounds like a great way to get some good PR for its business, and at a very modest cost -- the $3 million in scholarship money represents barely 1.2 percent of the $237 million that H&R Block spent on marketing and advertising last year, according S&P Capital IQ. And if it ends up generating smarter financial consumers who might eventually decide they could use some of H&R Block's own financial services down the road -- all the better. For teachers and students, meanwhile, this is free money (and not insignificantly, free lesson planning for time-pressed teachers) and not to be passed up. And if it also helps to improve America's abysmal record for financial literacy among teens, [**DF EDS: Rich asks that you please link to his "4 Key Financial Lessons for Teens From Bankers," once that runs. https://cms.aol.com/554/content/posts/edit/20974934/Thanks!**] well, that would be nice, too. More from Rich Smith
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Urban Outfitters: Big Plans, Big Problems?

The next time you set foot into your nearest Urban Outfitters (URBN), Anthropologie or Free People, don't expect to find the abundance of clothing you've gotten used to—the company announced it has chosen to chuck apparel and "stuff" will reign supreme.

At its analyst day last week, management rolled out plans for growth that include reducing the amount of clothing it sells and upping its stake in non-clothing merchandise.

Credit Suisse analyst Christian Buss weighed remains cautious even as he calls Urban Outfitters' moves as a step in the right direction. He writes:

The team laid out the next phase of its growth strategy, which boils down to: 1) Expansion of the product line into new categories; 2) Dramatically expanding existing stores in key 25-50 locations; and 3) Extending the company’s lead in eCommerce. These first two strategies raise a number of questions about the company’s long-term margin profile and return on invested capital. While we are ultimately more cautious on the three to five year outlook as a result, we believe that the outlook for earnings power in the short-term (two-three years) is likely to be enhanced, not diluted as accretive new categories are added to the mix.

eCommerce, however, is one strength that sets Urban Outfitters apart from its competition, Buss says:

We view Urban Outfitters as one of the leading retailers in the United States with respect to their eCommerce strategy, with penetration higher than that of any major specialty retailer, and the company shifting investments into margin-accretive emphasis on conversion. To this end, the company is looking to find ways to improve their capabilities by unifying store and online inventories. This unified inventory approach should allow the company to improve in-stock rates, reduce the working capital drag from having unproductive pools of restocking inventory and misalignment of store inventories with demand. This effort will also allow the company to roll out pick-up in store and delivery from store. Over time, we expect URBN to expand eCommerce penetration to 36%.

Investors have opted out of accessorizing with Urban Outfitters today–shares have dropped 0.8% to $35.80, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is off 1.5% at $34.13 and Gap (GPS) has ticked down 0.1% to $41.16%.

Are Americans Getting Smarter About Debt?

According to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, the way Americans use debt in their everyday lives has changed dramatically in the past few years. While the percentage of American households with debt has remained constant at 75%, the average total debt load has dropped by an impressive 13% since 2010.

Photo: Pixabay.

In fact, the median total for all Americans with debt is just over $122,000, including mortgage debt. We as Americans are managing our debt load better in every major category, except one -- education debt. Does this mean more people are taking a responsible approach to their finances, or is there another, less positive reason? Moreover, how worried should we be that student loan debt is still climbing, despite the clear trend toward lower debt in America?

Americans seem to be handling debt better
Not only do those Americans with debt owe less than they did a few years ago, but fewer people are also choosing to go into debt in the first place.

For example, the percentage of the population with mortgage or credit card debt fell significantly since 2010. The average total credit card debt of the 38% of the population that has any has dropped by an impressive 25% from $7,600 to $5,700.

And people are trying to live within their means more than in previous years. The median debt-to-income ratio of those households with debt is about 107%, down from 119% just three years before. In other words, a household with $100,000 in income can be expected to have about $107,000 in total debt. The payments on those debts represent under 16% of the households' income, down significantly from a peak of 18.7% in 2007.

Average Debt Carried by American Households | Create Infographics

It all seems to be producing a healthier American consumer, which is the reason less than 15% of debtors reported being late on any debt, down from a peak of almost 21% in 2007.

Student loans might not be as bad as they seem
Among "young families," which the Federal Reserve defines as those whose head of household is under 40, the rate of student loan debt has nearly doubled since 2001. Nearly 40% of these households have student loan debt, and the average among those that do has grown from about $17,000 to nearly $30,000.

Still, it may not be as bad as it seems. According to recent data, the positive effects of the rising student loan balances of Americans may be worth the cost. For instance, more people than ever before are getting advanced degrees, which cost more money but have significantly higher earnings potential.

And speaking of earnings potential, the gap in the lifetime earnings potential of college versus high school graduates makes the average student loan debt of about $30,000 seem like a drop in the bucket. According to a study by Georgetown University, the average new graduate with a bachelor's degree can expect to earn around $2.3 million in his or her lifetime. That's about $1 million more in earnings power over someone whose highest education level is high school.

Finally, when evaluating student loan debt, we should also take into account the programs in place to make repayment easier. Programs such as Pay-As-You-Earn, which limits student loan payments to just 10% of discretionary income and forgives any remaining balance after 20 years, simply didn't exist in 2001, when loan balances were much lower. Nor did the Public Service Loan Forgiveness plan, which encourages people to get into rewarding (but lower-paying) public-sector jobs.

Where do we go from here?
Although not all forms of debt are shrinking, our culture seems to be getting smarter about it. The most "unproductive" forms of debt, like credit cards and installment loans for purchases other than vehicles, were the types to see the largest year-over-year declines.

On the other hand, although education debt is on the rise, it is a more acceptable form of debt because the ends tend to justify the means a little more than, say, charging a shopping trip to a credit card.

This changing attitude toward debt is undoubtedly an effect of the financial crisis. However, it remains to be seen whether it's a temporary effect because of the lower availability of credit and other reasons. We can hope that this points to a lasting, healthy effect on the borrowing habits of Americans, similar to the effect of the Great Depression on that generation.

Lower taxes make it easier to stay out of debt
Recent tax increases have affected nearly every American taxpayer. But with the right planning, you can take steps to take control of your taxes and potentially even lower your tax bill. In our brand-new special report "The IRS Is Daring You to Make This Investment Now!," you'll learn about the simple strategy to take advantage of a little-known IRS rule. Don't miss out on advice that could help you cut taxes for decades to come. Click here to learn more.

International Paper, Rock-Tenn Get Boost as Jefferies Sees MLPs in Their Future

by Andrew Bary

Jefferies analyst Philip Ng writes today in a client note that "there is a high likelihood one of the containerboard producers creates an MLP structure over the next 6-12 months." MLPs are master limited partnerships. In this scenario, the companies would put many of their mills into MLPs, which might garner much higher valuations within MLPs thanks to ample dividend yields and tax benefits than they now get inside the corporations.

Ng writes that MLP creation could produce 30% to 50% gains in three stocks: International Paper (IP), Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) and Rock-Tenn Co. (RKT).  International Paper shares are up 2% this morning to 47.67; Packaging Corp. is 2% higher at 63.69 and Rock-Tenn is up 1.5% to 47. He continues:

We initially had reservations on the MLP structure for containerboard, but based on IP and RKT’s recent comments and the assurance they would not move forward unless they were able to run their business as currently constructed (i.e. ability to take downtime and raise prices), we believe there is a high likelihood one of the containerboard producers create an MLP over the next 6 – 12 months. While there is still a moratorium on PLRs, we have heard chatter it could be lifted as soon as this fall.

PLRs refer to private-letter rulings from the IRS, which are needed for a company to create an MLP.

Barron's wrote last month that International Paper, Rock-Tenn and Kapstone Paper and Packaging (KS) could have significant upside potential if they create MLPs. International Paper and Rock-Tenn management have said they are seriously considering the idea, which has been advocated by New York investment firm Perry Capital. Ng sees a sum-of-the-parts value of $61.50 for IP, $72.32 for Rock-Tenn and $87.73 for Packaging Corp.

Shares of International Paper have gained 2.3% to $47.82 at 10:07 a.m., while Packaging Corp. of America has risen 2.3% to $63.75, Kapstone has jumped 3.7% to $28 and Rock-Tenn Co is up 2% at $47.22.