Thursday, June 18, 2015

10 Wealth Planning Tips for a Post-DOMA World: Aspiriant

When the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) on June 26, that was just the beginning of the story for many wealth managers who serve same-sex couples.

San Francisco-based wealth management firm Aspiriant LLC, for example, has provided a checklist to help its more than 40 financial advisors in seven cities nationwide re-set the clock with clients whose lives will change as a result of DOMA’s repeal.

Aspiriant Director of Planning Sandi Bragar“I wrote a checklist internally for our advisors, who should take a fresh look at how the law’s repeal affects clients’ financial plans,” said Aspiriant Director of Planning Sandi Bragar (left) in a telephone interview with ThinkAdvisor on Thursday. “We have worked with a lot of same-sex couples in the Bay Area, and it’s something we’ve been watching very closely.”

Reviewing a same-sex couple’s financial plan can reap tremendous benefits for the client, Bragar said.

“In terms of tax benefits, we always found that same-sex couples didn’t get the same tax rights that other married couples get,” she noted. “If your marriage is recognized by the federal government, there is no estate tax. But if somebody in a same-sex partnership died and had an estate of more than $5.25 million, the surviving partner would have to pay tax above that $5.25 million. So for an estate of $10 million, you subtract $5.25 million, and that leaves $4.75 million that’s taxed at 40%, almost $2 million in tax, which is a huge penalty.”

Bragar, a CFP who serves 40 to 45 families, including a few same-sex couples, said Aspiriant has dealt for years with tricky wealth management issues involving same-sex couples, including estate planning, taxes and insurance. Aspiriant, with approximately $7 billion in assets under management, in 2013 was named No. 11 on Forbes’ list of Top 50 wealth managers.

Read Bragar’s 10 wealth planning tips for same-sex couples in a post-DOMA world on the following pages.

/* .premium-promo { border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 200px; float: left; } .premium-promo li, .premium-promo ul { list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .premium-promo li { margin: 0 0 10px; padding: 0 0 10px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #ddd; } .premium-promo h3 { text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 11px; } .premium-promo h4 { font-size: 16px; } .premium-promo a { text-decoration: none !important; } .premium-promo .btn { background: #0069a1; border-radius: 4px; display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; clear: both; color: #fff; font-weight: bold; } .premium-promo .btn:hover { background: #034c92; } */ 1.    Revisit your financial plan 

“The implications of the overturn of DOMA on same-sex clients living in states where marriage is legal is HUGE,” writes Bragar, who joined Aspiriant in 1999 and became a firm principal in 2002. She now chairs Aspiriant’s wealth planning committee, and serves on the client service committee.

Bragar counsels advisors and their clients to revisit financial plans to determine the big picture implications on their ability to financially achieve what’s most important.

“For wealthy couples, the estate tax savings alone will be a game changer,” Bragar says. “As part of this exercise, revisit your survivor needs. Maybe you can now self-insure, and don’t need as much life insurance.”

2.    Update your estate plan

Trusts, wills, general powers of attorney and healthcare powers likely all need to be re-worked to more efficiently achieve estate transfer objectives, “and to ensure that your spouse can make important financial and healthcare decisions for you if you lose the ability to make them yourself,” Bragar writes.

Married same-sex couples can now execute joint trusts, when appropriate, she adds.

3.    Revisit the beneficiary designations for your retirement accounts

“Until DOMA was knocked down, same-sex couples missed out on the ability to enjoy the survivorship rules for IRAs and other qualified retirement plans,” Bragar says.

These rules allow the surviving spouse to roll over the deceased spouse’s retirement account balance to the survivor’s IRA at the deceased spouse’s death without triggering taxes, she writes. “Since this opportunity wasn’t available to same-sex couples, some couples decided to name other beneficiaries (like their trust). Revisit your beneficiary designations to make sure they still make sense.”

4.   Take a fresh look at your investment portfolio

Consider these questions: Is the portfolio organized in the manner that you’d like or should you be commingling investment accounts? Do account titles need to be updated? Should you be taking a different overall investment approach now that you can truly invest together without hurdles?

5.    Revisit tax planning

“The ability to file joint federal and state income tax returns is a big logistical win,” Bragar reminds advisors to same-sex couples. “All income and expenses can now be captured on one tax return without figuring out how the expenses will be divided between partners’ returns. That said, the marriage tax penalty (i.e., where married couples end up paying more tax than they would if they were two single taxpayers) will now hit high-earning couples in the same-sex community. Make sure you know where you stand, and plan accordingly so you don’t get caught with a big, unexpected tax bill at the end of the year.”

Bragar recommends taking a look at whether amending the 2010-2012 tax returns as a married couple would generate tax savings. Tax returns can be amended up to three years from the tax filing date. “If you filed a gift tax return in the last three years to cover a gift made to your spouse, amend the return(s) to reverse the gift because spouses may make unlimited gifts to each other,” she writes.

/* .premium-promo { border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 200px; float: left; } .premium-promo li, .premium-promo ul { list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .premium-promo li { margin: 0 0 10px; padding: 0 0 10px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #ddd; } .premium-promo h3 { text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 11px; } .premium-promo h4 { font-size: 16px; } .premium-promo a { text-decoration: none !important; } .premium-promo .btn { background: #0069a1; border-radius: 4px; display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; clear: both; color: #fff; font-weight: bold; } .premium-promo .btn:hover { background: #034c92; } */ 6.    Revisit health insurance benefits

“If you/your spouse’s employer doesn’t already provide you with spousal health insurance benefits, and enrolling for those benefits would improve your family’s overall health insurance program, make the change,” Bragar says.

7.    Did your spouse die in the last three years, leaving you the net taxable estate? 

Amend the estate tax return and have the taxes refunded. A person has three years from the tax filing date to amend the estate tax return. Also, Bragar recommends investigating Social Security survivor benefits.

8.    Social Security

Married couples are eligible for spousal Social Security benefits equal to 50% of the spouse’s full retirement age benefit. “If this benefit is bigger than the benefit you earned (or if you didn’t earn a benefit), switch to the spousal benefit,” Bragar says.

9. Consider the whole family

Estate planning for a mixed-gender married couple also extends to parents who have drawn up estate plans that benefit both their child and the child’s same-sex spouse. “People might want to go back to their estate plan and define the word ‘spouse’ in the plan, to make sure that it includes the same-sex spouse,” she advises.

10. Consider a pre-nup if marriage is in the cards

“Marriage equality isn’t all a bowl of cherries,” Bragar writes. “Asset protection pits are involved, so carefully consider entering into a pre-nuptial agreement.”

Read High Court Bolsters Gay Marriage, but Financial Planning Hurdles Remain at ThinkAdvisor.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Costco Upbeat over Strong June Comps - Analyst Blog

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) delivered comparable-store sales (comps) growth of 6% in June, following an increase of 5% in May, and reflecting comparable sales growth of 6% at both the U.S. and international locations.

Buoyed by strong sales, shares of Costco recorded a new 52-week high of $115.94 yesterday, before closing at $115.89.

Costco's comparable-store sales for the 44-week period ended Jul 7, 2013rose 6%, buoyed by an equivalent increase at both the U.S. and international locations.

Excluding the effect of gasoline prices and foreign currency fluctuations, Costco's comparable-store sales for June rose 6%, reflecting comparable sales growth of 6% at its U.S. locations and 8% at international outlets. For the 44-week period, the company witnessed comparable-store sales growth of 6%, with U.S. and international sales rising by a similar rate.

Total net sales for June rose 8% to $9.92 billion from $9.16 billion in the year-ago period. Costco's sales for the 44-week period increased 8% to $87.05 billion from $80.46 billion in the year-ago period.

We believe that Costco's differentiated product range enables it to provide an upscale shopping experience to its members, resulting in market share gains and higher sales per square foot. Moreover, it continues to maintain a healthy membership renewal rate.

This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock remains committed to opening new clubs in domestic and international markets. The company's diversification strategy is a natural hedge against risks that may arise in specific markets.

Besides Costco, other retail chains also posted healthy sales data for the month of June as improving job market, lower gas prices, warmer weather and clearance discounts boosted consumer sentiment.

Leading the pack is the clothing chain, The Gap, Inc. (GPS), which witnessed a 7% rise in comps, while net sales jumped 8% to $1.53 billion. Off-price retailer of apparels, footwear and accessories, Stein Mart Inc.! (SMRT) was another strong performer of the month. The company registered a 6.5% rise in June comps, while total sales increased 2.6% to $109 million.

Discount store operator, Fred's, Inc. (FRED), marked a significant improvement as the company witnessed a 4.5% rise in comps, substantially up from the 4% decrease witnessed in Jun 2012. Net sales for June increased 3% to $187.7 million.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Is BMW Building Its Own EV Charging Stations?

Next week, BMW (NASDAQOTH: BAMXF  ) is rolling out its new, all-electric i3. This move marks BMW's first launch into the niche market of all-electric cars, but BMW's not going in halfway. In fact, BMW is doubling down on its venture into EVs and teaming up with U.K.-based EV charging station provider Chargemaster, in a venture to build fast charge ChargeNow stations for BMW's new i-Series. Here's what you need to know.


BMW i3 Concept Coupe, November 2012. Photo: BMW USA.

BMW's new EV
We won't know for certain what the i3 looks like until next week, but that hasn't dampened the considerable buzz surrounding the new EV. Built using renewable materials when possible, the i3 has a full carbon-fiber structure that lends to the i3's overall weight of 2,634 pounds -- lighter than General Motors' (NYSE: GM  ) Chevy Volt, Nissan Motors' Leaf, and Toyota Motor's Prius plug-in hybrid.

The standard i3 uses a 22kWh lithium-ion battery, delivers 168 horsepower and 184 pound-feet of torque, and can go 0 to 60 mph in 7.2 seconds. More pointedly, reviewers such as Edmunds and BBC's Top Gear test-drove the i3 and raved about the way it performed. According to official European Union test procedures, the i3 can go 118 miles on pure battery in comfort mode. Moreover, BMW says that in the worst conditions the i3 will go 81 miles on pure battery. If that's not far enough, thanks to BMW's e-drive technology, the driver has the option of putting the i3 in an "EcoPro" mode that extends the initial range to 124 miles per charge.

Still not enough range? With the purchase of the optional range extender -- a 650cc two-cylinder gasoline engine that acts as a generator and doesn't provide propulsion -- the range on the i3 is almost doubled. And the best part? The i3 has a base MSRP of $41,350, making this car a serious threat to Chevy's Volt.

More charging stations, please
Even with these impressive specs, the i3, as an EV, faces what all EVs face: range anxiety. No one wants to be stranded in the middle of nowhere, and with charging stations few and far between, that's a real possibility. Luckily, BMW is aware of this problem, and to help offset it, it's buying an estimated 2% equity stake in Chargemaster. The exact details of the deal haven't yet been released, but what is known is that the deal involves having both companies team up for a five-year period, to build fast-charge ChargeNow stations across the U.K., for BMW's i-Series. 

Taking into account that the U.K. is BMW's fourth largest sales market in the world, an expanded infrastructure is fantastic news for consumers considering the i3 but worried about range. Also good news? BMW claims the i3 can recharge in as little as 30 minutes when connected to a 50kW fast-charge station.

What about charging stations in the U.S?
Right now, BMW's quick-charge stations are only for the U.K., but that doesn't mean it can't use the same approach in the United States. The U.S. is BMW's largest market by sales -- although China is expected to surpass the U.S. later in 2013 -- and building a quick-charge infrastructure in the U.S. would probably have a positive impact on BMW's EV sales. Furthermore, the i3 isn't BMW's only car to launch into the EV market. The i8 extended-range plug-in hybrid is expected later in 2014, and it's an impressive vehicle, to say the least. Clearly, these moves signal that BMW is throwing its considerable weight into what is still a niche market. How it'll pan out has yet to be seen, but considering BMW's reputation, this is something to watch -- both for how i affects BMW's bottom line, and for how it affects other EV manufactures' sales.

Are you interested in placing your bets on the auto industry? Well, EVs are still a niche market, and they could remain that way for a while. But some automakers have their hand in EVs and are expanding into one of the great auto frontiers -- China. The Middle Kingdom is already the world's largest auto market, and it's set to grow even bigger in coming years. A recent Motley Fool report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market," names two global giants poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. You can read this report right now for free -- just click here for instant access.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Cruise Investors Smell a Fire Sale

The fire aboard Royal Caribbean's (NYSE: RCL  ) Grandeur of the Seas was put out within two hours, but not before disrupting the travel plans of passengers on board and those set to board the ship this Friday. Both sailings have been nixed, and even though Royal Caribbean is doing things right by issuing refunds and discounts on future sailings, this is going to be a big hit for the cruise industry.

Royal Caribbean, NCL (NYSE: NCL  ) , and ship spa services provider Steiner Leisure (NASDAQ: STNR  ) all hit new 52-week highs earlier this month. Unlike Carnival (NYSE: CCL  ) -- which has been sluggish in light of several mishaps at sea since last year -- everyone seemed to view the negative instances as Carnival-specific events. Now Royal Caribbean's fire may lead folks to question booking on any cruise line in the near future.

In this video, longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz -- who experienced a kitchen fire aboard the QE2 and whose parents suffered a nixed Hawaiian cruise when the S.S. Independence ceased operations several years ago -- takes a look at the reputation problems that the industry may experience in light of Monday's fire.

Around the world
Profiting from our increasingly global economy can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. The Motley Fool's free report "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World" shows you how. Click here to get your free copy before it's gone.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Why the Dow Is Rallying More than 100 Points

Blue-chip stocks are broadly higher today thanks to positive news out of the housing sector and a handful of better-than-expected earnings announcements. With roughly an hour left in the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is up 123 points, or 0.84%.

The Department of Commerce announced this morning (link opens PDF) that housing starts had risen to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.04 million in March. This was 7% better than the revised February estimate and a staggering 46.7% higher than in the same month last year. It also beat the consensus forecast: Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected 933,000 housing starts in March.

"Housing continues to be a bright spot," an analyst told Bloomberg News. He went on to note that there's "still a lot of room to go with new construction activity."

On the individual-company front, shares of Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) are leading the Dow higher, up by 5.4% at the time of writing. The soft-drink maker reported first-quarter earnings today, and as my colleague Dan Dzombak noted, it beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines with $0.46 in adjusted earnings per share on $11.04 billion in revenue.

Also trading higher today are shares of the Dow's banking components, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) and JPMorgan Chase. The companies are up 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively, riding the coattails of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) and US Bancorp (NYSE: USB  ) , both of which reported their results from the first three months of the year.

Analysts have been concerned about the health of the banking sector after Wells Fargo reported at the end of last week that its mortgage-origination volume dropped in the first quarter. Given the industry's run of record profits, however, any worries should be at least partially allayed.

For the three months ended March 31, Goldman grew its top line by 1%, while net income at the investment bank shot up by 7%. And while US Bancorp recorded a slight drop in revenue, the nation's largest regional bank earned 6.3% more this year than last.

Next up for the banking sector is Bank of America, which reports earnings before the market opens tomorrow. The consensus estimate is calling for $0.22 per share, according to the Journal.

Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu and Matt Koppenheffer lift the veil on the bank's operations, detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Baird, SIG Bench Dick’s Sporting

After a report that Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) is considering going private sent the stock higher Thursday, the sporting goods retailer got nailed today by a pair of downgrades.

The problem? Valuation

Baird cut the stock to neutral from outperform, arguing that its move into the mid $50s “has created a more balanced risk/reward profile.” Susquehanna, meanwhile, cut the stock to neutral from positive. As analyst Christopher Svezia wrote, "We continue to see some upside given manageable near-term (4Q) expectations and potential for healthy earnings recovery in FY15, but ultimately not enough to meet our +15% threshold.”

The stock fell 1.7% to $53.75 in recent trading.

CNBC on Thursday reported unusual options trading in Dick’s stock before a Reuters report surfaced that the retailer is holding early-stage conversations with a handful of buyout firms about going private.

Baird analysts addressed the issue in today's note:

With prospects of a go-private transaction now officially part of the story, downside risk appears somewhat limited in the near term. That said, the stock's current valuation (>9x FY14 EBITDA) is already entering levels consistent with recent takeout activity, and an improvement in fundamentals across early-FY15 appears somewhat discounted. While our model can get an LBO value north of $60, it’s not certain any transaction will occur. As a result, the stock’s risk/reward profile seems more balanced versus what we envisioned last summer.

Not everyone shares those concerns. Jim Chartier, an analyst at Monness Crespi Hardt, maintained a buy rating and raised his price target to $60 from $56. As he explains: 

The stock underperformed in 2014 as weakness in the golf and hunting categories resulted in lower than anticipated sales and earnings. In addition, investors have been concerned about the company's difficult same-store sales comparison in 4QFY14. We believe the potential for a private equity sale raises the floor in the stock in the near term. And, we expect easy sales and margin comparisons in 1HFY15 will attract investors if the company reports in line or better 4QFY14 results. Accordingly, we believe a higher valuation multiple is appropriate. The stock is trading at 17.6x our ntm EPS estimate of $3.11, in line with its three year average valuation of 17.7x. We are raising our price target to $60 (from $56) based on 18.5x our FY15 EPS estimate of $3.25.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Artists Rejoice! Tax Court Concludes Painter's Activity Isn't A 'Hobby'

I am a Tax Partner in WithumSmith+Brown's National Tax Service Group and the founding father of the firm's Aspen, Colorado office. I am a CPA licensed in Colorado and New Jersey, and hold a Masters in Taxation from the University of Denver. My specialty is corporate and partnership taxation, with an emphasis on complex mergers and acquisitions structuring. In the past year, I co-authored CCH's "CCH Expert Treatise Library: Corporations Filing Consolidated Returns," was awarded the Tax Adviser's "Best Article Award" for a piece titled "S Corporation Shareholder Compensation: How Much is Enough?" and was named to the CPA Practice Advisor's "40 Under 40."

In my free time, I enjoy driving around in a van with my dog Maci, solving mysteries. I have been known to finish the New York Times Sunday crossword puzzle in less than 7 minutes, only to go back and do it again using only synonyms. I invented wool, but am so modest I allow sheep to take the credit. Dabbling in the culinary arts, I have won every Chili Cook-Off I ever entered, and several I haven't. Lastly, and perhaps most notably, I once sang the national anthem at a World Series baseball game, though I was not in the vicinity of the microphone at the time.

Contact Tony Nitti

The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

Monday, June 1, 2015

Hennessy Japan Fund Comments on Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd.

Among the strongest performing stocks in the Fund during the period were … and Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. (TSE:7453), the operator of the MUJI brand retail chain store. Finally, shares of Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. surged 18% due to the solid earnings announcement for its fiscal year ended February 28, 2014, and the upbeat guidance for the new fiscal year. The Fund continues to hold all of these positions.

From Hennessy Japan Fund's Semi-Annual Report April 30, 2014.

Also check out: Hennessy Japan Fund Undervalued Stocks Hennessy Japan Fund Top Growth Companies Hennessy Japan Fund High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Hennessy Japan Fund keeps buying
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Sunday, May 31, 2015

How Much Does Motherhood Really Cost Women?

Happy smiling mother and her baby Alamy My birth was meticulously planned. My mother, a teacher, and my father, a businessman, strategized their baby-making agenda around my mother's schedule. I would be born at the end of May, giving her the summer for her maternity leave, during which she wouldn't lose any wages or use any of her sick or personal days, before returning to work. I arrived promptly in the latter part of May and then screwed everything else up. My mother, a fiercely strong and independent woman, made what was, for her, a surprising choice to become a stay-at-home mom to raise me (and the younger sister who showed up later). In another previously unpredicted turn, our family moved overseas, making it even harder for my mother to return to the workforce later. For nearly 21 years, my mother sacrificed her career and her earning potential to raise two daughters. Now, in my mid-20s, I've watched my peers struggle with the question of whether or not to have children. Those who decide to pursue the path to dirty diapers, sleepless nights and unconditional love seem to fall into two groups: those who blindly hope they'll be able to make ends meet; and those who begin crafting idyllic budgets around their fictional child. What Price Motherhood? The decision to have children or not is incredibly personal. While one choice provides a host of obvious emotional and intangible rewards (and the possibility of having someone other than paid staff to care for you in your twilight years), the other has distinct financial advantages. Those financial disadvantages for mothers involve more than just the costs of raising a child -- both parents take those on. But women in particular need to consider the income, retirement savings and Social Security benefits they sacrifice by electing to walk away from the workforce. Even mothers who return to work relatively rapidly tend to suffer financial setbacks often referred to as the "motherhood penalty*." Maternity Leave The monetary losses start from the moment the labor contractions set in. Bringing new life into the world warrants legally mandated paid leave in most developed nations -- except the United States, where employers aren't required to provide it. How much compensation women are entitled to while out on maternity leave varies by country: It could be as little as 50 percent of their normal wages. But that's far more than the disturbing zero required of American companies. "Only about half of all first-time moms in the United States are able to take any paid leave after childbirth; and just a fifth of working women with young children receive leave with full pay," according to WorkingMother.com's evaluation of National Partnership for Women & Families' Census data. Salary Over the years, studies have shown mothers earning less, facing more workplace discrimination and receiving fewer opportunities than women without children. In fact, this issue may be more pressing than that of the general pay gap between men and women. Women who leave the workforce entirely sacrifice their salaries for a job that pays in cuddles, kisses, temper tantrums and heart-melting moments. But you can't pay the bills in a child's laughter, your daughter's first steps or when your teenage son says, "I love you" for no reason. Even though motherly tasks require dedication, multitasking, high-level communication skills, the ability to prioritize and handle expenses, employers still don't see the work as proof of ability. The role of a mother (working or stay-at-home) demands an incredible amount of effort; it's every bit as much of a job as any 9-to-5 occupation, but employers still discriminate against mothers. "Employed mothers are hit with a 5 percent wage penalty per child, on average," according to a study conducted by Cornell University sociologists and published in the American Journal of Sociology. Social Security Benefits It isn't just salary that women walk away from when they leave the workforce to raise children. Their eligibility to earn Social Security benefits suddenly comes to a screeching halt. Women who fail to put in a total of 10 years of work will not be able to collect Social Security retirement benefits, according to the Social Security Administration's 2014 pamphlet on earning credits (though there are some exceptions). But more important than just qualifying for Social Security is how your benefit is calculated. To quote the SSA:

Social Security benefits are based on your lifetime earnings. Your actual earnings are adjusted or "indexed" to account for changes in average wages since the year the earnings were received. Then Social Security calculates your average indexed monthly earnings during the 35 years in which you earned the most.

Working for fewer years, working at lower wages, bringing home a lower aggregate amount over your lifetime -- all of these factors cut into the size of the benefit checks mothers can expect when they retire from the work force. Of course, some millennial women may not be taking the potential reduction in their Social Security benefits as seriously, because they expect the entitlement program will likley have been restructured by the time their generation faces retirement. As the Social Security Administration notes on its website,

"Your estimated benefits are based on current law. The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2033, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 77 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits."

But regardless of how the system is reformed (or isn't), the reduction to a mother's benefits should still be viewed as a loss. Other Retirement Savings Plans Social Security may be nothing to depend on -- at least not at current levels -- but most workers today can use an employer's 401(k) -- or similar retirement plan -- to prepare for the future. A woman who leaves the workforce to become a mother loses the benefit of her employer-matched retirement plan, and without any taxable income; she can't contribute to an IRA. Mothers who stay in the workforce still won't reap the same benefits from an employer-matched retirement plan as their childless counterparts. A 5 percent reduction in salary (per child) would translate to a lower amount to contribute and (because it's based on a percentage of salary) a lower employer match. And of course, those who forgo children don't have to prioritize the needs of a child over retirement plans. There won't be any debate about saving for retirement versus paying for braces, private schools or college. Ultimately, It Doesn't Really Come Down to the Money I'm thankful to have been raised by a mother who could play dress-up with me, heal my scrapes, and attend all of my activities growing up. My mother sacrificed career advancement to raise me, and I'll always be incredibly grateful to her. She, like most women who become mothers, will always claim it was the right decision and one she's never regretted (except probably, for a brief period during my teen years). The numbers may indicate that it's financially better for women to resist their biological urges, but on this Mother's Day, I thank my own Mom and everyone else's who didn't. More from Erin Lowry
•Fostering a Dog: It's Good for Your Heart and Your Wallet •3 Funny Money Lessons from TV's Greatest Minds •Credit Limits: How They Keep You from Chasing a Dangerous Pot of Gold

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Is your car making you sick?

CLEVELAND -- We take pride in our cars, and who doesn't love one that is all spick-and-span?

But don't let that squeaky clean look deceive you. Hitching on for a ride can be all sorts of bacteria, mold, viruses and dust mites. This can really make a difference during the flu and allergy seasons.

Jill Holdsworth is an infection preventionist and is president of the DC Metro Chapter of the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology. She says the car can be a very big place to pass bacteria back and forth if you are not careful.

"The No. 1 hot spots would be anywhere that you touch with your hands," Holdsworth said. These areas include the steering wheel, radio, gear shift, cup holders and car seats.

Car interiors are often overlooked for disinfecting and deep cleaning.

A study conducted several years ago by experts at Queen Mary University in London shows an average of 700 different kinds of bacteria within car interiors, compared to 60 types in the average public toilet.

"I would always keep a small bottle of hand sanitizer," Holdsworth said. "I would always keep a disinfectant wipe."

Keep wipes in the car and wipe down the common areas regularly.

If you don't disinfect, those germs in your car can easily spread the cold and flu viruses along with gastrointestinal illnesses like norovirus.

APIC just launched a "Infection Prevention and You" website to provide information about preventing infections: www.apic.org/infectionpreventionandyou. The site provides lots of consumer tips for infection prevention at home, in public and in healthcare facilities.

Holdsworth conducted a car interior germ test and the results will astound you.

Goldcorp Lifts Offer for Osisko

NEW YORK (The Deal) -- Goldcorp (GG) has increased its unsolicited bid for Osisko Mining to C$3.6 billion ($3.3 billion) in cash and shares, topping an agreed, rival offer from Yamana Gold (AUY).

Vancouver-based Goldcorp said Thursday it will offer 0.17 Goldcorp shares and C$2.92 cash for each Osisko share, equal to C$7.65 per share based on Goldcorp's Wednesday closing price of C$27.84.

That is only 0.7% more than the C$7.60 per-share valuation of an April 2 agreement for Yamana Gold Inc. to buy 50% of Osisko's mining and exploration assets.

"Goldcorp's increased offer represents straightforward and superior value for Osisko shareholders, while ensuring accretion on key per-share metrics for Goldcorp shareholders," Goldcorp president and CEO Check Jeannes said in a statement. "The choice is clear for Osisko's shareholders." Goldcorp has been pursuing Osisko for more than five years, making a series of friendly bids to gain control of Osisko's Malartic mine in Quebec. Those bids were rebuffed by Osisko, leading a frustrated Goldcorp management to make a hostile C$2.6 billion offer in January. Osisko rejected that offer and on April 2 unveiled a complicated deal with Canada's Yamana Gold, which offered C$2.19 in cash, 0.2119 of a Yamana share and a new Osisko share. Malartic promises to be Quebec's largest gold mine. It has proven and probable reserves of 9.37 million ounces of gold and is expected to produce between 500,000 to 600,000 ounces per year over its expected 16-year life. Goldcorp said that its latest offer was dependent on acceptances from the holders of at least 50% of Osisko shares. The offer will run until April 23. Under the terms of Yamana's agreement with Osisko it has five business days to match Goldcorp's offer. The companies also agreed a C$70 million break fee. Shares in Osisko closed Wednesday at C$7.55. The company's market capitalization has climbed just over 60% since the start of the year, to C$3.32 billion. Goldcorp shares closed Wednesday at C$27.84, equating to a market capitalization of C$22.63 billion.

Stock quotes in this article: GG, AUY 

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Tuesday’s Analyst Moves: Philip Morris International Inc., The J.M. Smucker Company, More (PM, SJM, EV, More)

Before Tuesday’s opening bell, a number of big name dividend stocks were the subject of analyst moves. Below, we highlight the important analyst commentary for investors.

Keybanc Upgrades Heico

HEICO Corp (HEI) was upgraded to “Buy” from “Hold” at Keybanc due to accelerated growth in the commercial aerospace aftermarket. Keybanc has a price target of $68 on Heico, suggesting the HEI’s stock will rise by 24%. HEI has a dividend yield of 0.22%.

JP Morgan Downgrades Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern (KSU) was downgraded to “Neutral” from “Overweight” at JP Morgan, JPM sees KSU facing regulatory risk in Mexico. KSU has a dividend yield of 1.17%.

Drexel Upgrades Maxim

Drexel upgraded Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) from &

Monday, May 25, 2015

5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.

>>5 Low-Priced Names to Trade for Gains

This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news.

Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if The Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy in February

If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend.

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

Pandora Media

My first earnings short-squeeze play is Internet radio player Pandora Media (P), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Pandora Media to report revenue of $649.04 million on earnings of 8 cents per share.

Just today, Canaccord reiterated its buy rating on Pandora and raised its price target to $43 from $35. It expects a solid fourth-quarter report from Pandora Media. Yesterday, Needham raised its price target for Pandora Media to $41 from $33, saying it believes the company's core national advertising business is healthy.

>>2 Big Tech Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Pandora Media is pretty high at 10.9%. That means that out of the 154.14 million shares in the tradable float, 19.84 million shares are sold short by the bears. If the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then shares of Pandora Media could easily explode sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their bets.

From a technical perspective, P is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong over the last five months, with shares moving higher from its low of $18.02 to its recent high of $37.95 a share. During that uptrend, shares of P have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of P within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on P, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its all-time high of $37.95 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 8.87 million shares. If that breakout hits, then P will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $50 to $55 a share.

I would simply avoid P or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support at $32.36 to its 50-day moving average at $30.61 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then P will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $26 to $25 a share.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters

Another potential earnings short-squeeze trade idea is specialty coffee and coffee maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), which is set to release its numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Green Mountain Coffee Roasters to report revenue $1.40 billion on earnings of 90 cents per share.

>>3 Huge Stocks to Trade (or Not)

Just recently, Longbow analyst Philip Terpolilli said demand for products made or licensed by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters has increased versus levels from a year ago. Terpolilli said he's upbeat about the company's outlook over the next year, and he kept a buy rating on the stock.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is extremely high at 31.3%. That means that out of the 128.07 million shares in the tradable float, 37.55 million shares are sold short by the bears. This stock sports a monster short interest, so if the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then we could easily see a large short-squeeze develop post-earnings.

From a technical perspective, GMCR is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong over the last three months, with shares moving higher from its low of $56.69 to its recent high of $81.90 a share. During that move, shares of GMCR have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of GMCR within range of triggering a major breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're in the bull camp on GMCR, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $81.80 to $81.90 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 3.29 million shares. If that breakout hits, then GMCR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $87.12 to its 52-week high at $89.66 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give GMCR a chance to tag $100 to $105 a share.

I would simply avoid GMCR or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below both its 50-day at $75.05 and its 200-day at $73.34 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then GMCR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $67.50 to $65 a share, or even $62.50 a share.

Yelp

Another potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is online urban city guide player Yelp (YELP), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Yelp to report revenue of $67.26 million on a loss of 3 cents per share.

>>Where Is the S&P Headed From Here? Higher!

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Yelp is very high at 13%. That means that out of the 53.21 million shares in the tradable float, 7.27 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 17.6%, or by about 1.08 million shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of YELP could easily explode higher post-earnings as the shorts rush to cover some of their bets.

From a technical perspective, YELP is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $56.65 to its recent high of $83.96 a share. During that uptrend, shares of YELP have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of YELP within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on YELP, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $77.83 to its all-time high at $83.96 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.94 million shares. If that breakout hits, then YELP will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $95 to $100 a share.

I would avoid YELP or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $72.50 to $69.80 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then YELP will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $63.63 to $63.03 a share.

Shutterfly

Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is digital personalized photo products and services provider Shutterfly (SFLY), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Shutterfly to report revenue of $406.26 million on earnings of $1.07 per share.

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Shutterfly is extremely high at 17.5%. That means that out of the 37.25 million shares in the tradable float, 6.53 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 9.8%, or by about 581,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a strong quarter, then shares of SFLY could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts jump to cover some of their trades.

From a technical perspective, SFLY is currently trending above its 50-day moving average and just below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last three months, with shares moving between $43 on the downside and $52.49 on the upside. Any high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern post-earnings could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of SFLY.

If you're bullish on SFLY, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 200-day moving average of $51.17 a share to some more key overhead resistance levels at $51.98 to $52.49 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 722,066 shares. If that breakout hits, then SFLY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $58.83 to its 52-week high at $59.93 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give SFLY a chance to tag $65 a share.

I would simply avoid SFLY or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day moving average of $47.55 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then SFLY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $44.73 to $43 a share. Any high-volume move below those levels will then put $40 to $37.50 into range for shares of SFLY.

RealD

My final earnings short-squeeze play is 3D technologies licensor RealD (RLD), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect RealD to report revenue of $48.61 million on a loss of 9 cents per share.

>>3 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for RealD is very high at 11.9%. That means that out of the 43.85 million shares in the tradable float, 5.03 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a high short interest on a stock with a relatively low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a sharp short-covering rally for shares of RLD post-earnings.

From a technical perspective, RLD is currently trending above its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been uptrending a bit for the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $7.65 to its recent high of $9.17 a share. During that move, shares of RLD have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of RLD within range of triggering a major breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're in the bull camp on RLD, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $9.17 to $9.44 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 424,845 shares. If that breakout hits, then RLD will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day moving average of $10.24 to $12 a share, or even $13 to $14 a share.

I would avoid RLD or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $8.58 to its 50-day moving average of $8.54 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then RLD will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at those double bottom prices of $56.10 to $55.59 a share.

To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


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>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Sunday, May 24, 2015

Global Retirement Crisis Is Coming for Young and Old Alike

In this Sept. 9, 2013 photo, Dong Linhua, 59, speaks at his home in Shanghai. Dong, a former Shanghai factory worker and now a real estate investor who owns three apartments and two small shop spaces says, In the prosperous years after World War II, governments in rich countries expanded their pension systems. In addition, companies began to offer pensions that paid employees a guaranteed amount each month in retirement -- so-called defined-benefit pensions. It got even better in the 1980s. Many countries began to coax older employees out of the workforce to make way for the young. They did so by reducing the age employees became eligible for full government pension benefits. The age fell from 64.3 years in 1949 to 62.4 years in 1999 in the relatively wealthy countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That created a new, and perhaps unrealistic, "concept of retirement as an extended period of leisure, " Mercer consultant Dreger says. "You'd take long vacations. That was the Golden Age." Then came the 21st century. A System Under Siege As the 2000s dawned, governments -- and companies -- looked at actuarial tables and birth rates and decided they couldn't afford the pensions they'd promised. People were living longer: The average man in 30 countries the OECD surveyed will live 19 years after retirement. That's up from 13 years in 1958, when many countries were devising their generous pension plans. The OECD says the average retirement age would have to reach 66 or 67, from 63 now, to "maintain control of the cost of pensions" from longer lifespans. Compounding the problem is that birth rates are falling just as the bulge of people born in developed countries after World War II retires. Populations are aging rapidly as a result. The higher the percentage of older people, the harder it is for a country to finance its pension system because relatively fewer younger workers are paying taxes. In China, the 65-and-older population will rise from 11 percent of the working-age population in 2010 to 42 percent in 2050. In the United States, this old-age dependency ratio will rise from 20 percent to 35 percent. In response, governments are raising retirement ages and slashing benefits. In 30 OECD countries, the average age at which men can collect full retirement benefits will rise to 64.6 in 2050, from 62.9 in 2010; for women, it will rise from 61.8 to 64.4. Italy is raising the age from 59 to 65. In the wealthy countries it studied, the OECD found that the pension reforms of the 2000s will cut retirement benefits by an average 20 percent. Even France, where government pensions have long been generous, has begun modest reforms to reduce costs. France has raised the number of years people must work before they can receive a full pension from 41.5 to 43. More changes are likely coming. "France is a retirees' paradise now," says Richard Jackson, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "You're not going to want to retire there in 20 to 25 years." The fate of government pensions is important because they are the cornerstone of retirement income. Across the 34-country OECD, governments provide 59 percent of retiree income, on average. The government's share ranges as high as 86 percent in Hungary. In the United States, the world's largest economy, it's about 38 percent. If rich countries don't cut pension costs even more, says Standard & Poor's, a credit-rating agency, their government debt will more than triple as a percentage of annual economic output by 2050. The debt of most countries would drop to what is commonly called junk status. Many of those facing a financial squeeze in retirement can look to themselves for part of the blame. They spent many years before the Great Recession borrowing and spending instead of setting money aside for old age. In the U.S., households took on an additional $5.4 trillion in debt -- an increase of 75 percent -- from the start of 2003 until mid-2008, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The savings rate fell from nearly 13 percent of after-tax income in the early 1980s to 2 percent in 2005. The National Institute on Retirement Security estimates that Americans are at least $6.8 trillion short of what they need to have saved for a comfortable retirement. For those 55 to 64, the shortfall comes to $113,000 per household. "People are going to be shocked at how little they have," says Alicia Munnell, director of Boston College's Center for Retirement Research. "For some middle-income people, it will mean canceling the RV" -- the recreational vehicle that has become a symbol of retiree life in America. For those worse off, she says, it could mean an old age in poverty. After the Financial Crisis, a Long-Term Problem As if demographics weren't burden enough, the outlook became worse when the global banking system went into a panic in 2008 and tipped the world into the worst recession since the 1930s. Government budget deficits -- the gap between what governments spend each year and what they collect in taxes -- swelled in Europe and the United States. Tax revenue shrank, and governments pumped money into rescuing their banks and financing unemployment benefits and other welfare programs. That escalated pressure on governments to reduce spending on pensions or raise revenue. Hungary took one of the most draconian steps: It demanded that its citizens surrender their private retirement accounts to the government or give up their government pensions. Poland seized a portion of private retirement accounts. Ireland imposed an annual tax on retirement accounts. The Great Recession threw tens of millions of people out of work worldwide. For many who kept their jobs, pay has stagnated the past five years, even as living costs have risen, making it tougher to save for retirement. In addition, government retirement benefits are based on lifetime earnings, and they'll now be lower. The Urban Institute, a think tank in Washington, estimates that lost wages and pay raises will shrink the typical American worker's income at age 70 by 4 percent -- an average of $2,300 a year. Leslie Lynch, 52, of Glastonbury, Conn., had $30,000 in her 401(k) retirement account when she lost her $65,000-a-year job last year at an insurance company. She'd worked there 28 years. She has depleted her retirement savings trying to stay afloat. "I don't believe that I will ever retire now," she says. She also worries about her children, all in their 20s: "I don't think my three sons will ever retire" because pay raises have been so weak for so long. Less money from a government pension isn't the only factor weighing on future retirees. When the financial crisis struck five years ago, the world's central banks cut interest rates to record lows to stop the economic free-fall. That also punished people with much of their money in investments that pay interest. "The low-interest rate environment has been brutal," says Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies. She points out that $500,000 in savings would yield $25,000 a year at an interest rate of 5 percent, just $2,500 at 0.5 percent. The crisis also frightened many away from the stock market. Stocks can be riskier than other investments, but they yield more long term. Many investors have shunned stocks while the world's stock markets have soared. In the United States, the Dow Jones industrial average has risen nearly 150 percent since March 2009. Japan's Nikkei index is up 56 percent just this year. The past five years have been so tumultuous that some people have been reluctant to invest at all. Olivia Mitchell, who studies retirement at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, says her grown daughters rebuffed her when she urged them to save more for retirement. Stocks, they said, are too risky. And bonds don't yield enough interest to be worth the bother. The Asia Challenge In Asia, workers are facing a different retirement worry, a byproduct of their astonishing economic growth. Traditionally, Chinese and Koreans could expect their grown children to care for them as they aged. But newly prosperous young people increasingly want to live on their own. They also are more likely to move to distant cities to take jobs, leaving parents behind. Countries like China and South Korea are at an "awkward" stage, says Jackson at the Center for Strategic and International Studies: The old ways are vanishing, but new systems of caring for the aged aren't yet in place. Yoo Tae-we, 47, a South Korean manager at a trading company that imports semiconductor components, doesn't expect his son to support him as he and his siblings did their parents. "We have to prepare for our own futures rather than depending on our children," he says. South Korean public pensions pay an average of just $744 a month. South Korea has the rich world's highest poverty rate for the elderly. It has one of the world's highest suicide rates for the aged, too. China, too, will struggle to finance retirement. China pays generous pensions to civil servants and to urban workers who toiled in inefficient state-owned factories. These workers can retire early with full benefits -- at 60 for men and 50 or 55 for women, depending on their job. Their pensions will prove to be a burden as China ages and each retiree is supported by contributions from fewer workers. The elderly are rapidly becoming a bigger share of China's population because of a policy begun in 1979 and only recently relaxed that limited couples to one child. The World Bank says the cost of those pensions could eventually reach twice the size of China's annual gross domestic product. That would put the bill at more than $16 trillion. China is considering raising its retirement ages. But the government would likely meet resistance. "I heard that the authorities might postpone the age of the retirement, but I sure hope not, since I've already worked for almost 42 years," says Dong Linhua, 59, a former Shanghai factory worker and now a real estate investor, who owns three apartments and two small shop spaces. China also tightly regulates investing, limiting access to assets that are more likely to generate the returns workers need to build a healthy retirement account. "Things that you and I take for granted, like being able to invest in mutual funds or being able to buy stocks and bonds, are in their infancy in China," says Josef Pilger, leader of Ernst & Young's Asia-Pacific pension practice in Sydney, Australia. "The biggest fear the Chinese regulators have is: What if we relax investment restrictions and we have a financial crisis? People will be on the street, saying: 'You let me play with fire, and I burned my fingers.' " The End of Traditional Pensions Governments aren't alone in cutting pensions. Corporations are, too. The traditional defined-benefit pensions they long had provided are vanishing. Companies don't want to bear the risks and costs of guaranteeing employees' pensions. They've moved instead to so-called defined-contribution plans, such as 401(k)s in the U.S., which shift responsibility for retirement savings to employees. The problem with these plans is that people have proved terrible at taking advantage of and managing them. They don't always enroll. They don't contribute enough. They dip into the accounts when they need money. They also make bad investment choices; often buying stocks when times are good and share prices are high and bailing when prices are low. Investment returns from defined-contribution plans are typically 0.76 percentage points lower than returns on defined-benefit plans, according to the consulting firm Towers Watson. That difference adds up: At a 5 percent annual return, $100,000 becomes $432,000 after 30 years. At 5.76 percent, it's 24 percent higher -- $537,000. Many have raided their retirement accounts to pay bills. In the United States, 26 percent of workers with 401(k) and other defined-contribution plans take loans or make hardship withdrawals before they reach retirement, according to a study by HelloWallet, which offers online services that help people with their finances. Working Americans withdraw $70 billion annually from retirement accounts -- an amount that's 40 percent of the $175 billion put in. Employers add an additional $118 billion. Retirement specialist Teresa Ghilarducci of the New School for Social Research in New York says the voluntary plans "work for a robot with an Excel spreadsheet," not for people trying to pay bills and care for children who aren't thinking decades ahead to retirement. Nudging Workers to Save Several countries are trying to force -- or nudge -- workers to save more for retirement. Australia went the furthest, the soonest. It passed a law in 1993 that makes retirement savings mandatory. Employers must contribute the equivalent of 9.25 percent of workers' wages to 401(k)-style retirement accounts. (The required contributions will rise to 12 percent by 2020.) Australians can't withdraw money from their accounts before retirement. When politicians were debating the plan, only about half of Australians supported it. Within six months, approval rose to 85 percent. The difference: Workers started receiving statements that showed retirement savings piling up, says Nick Sherry, who helped design the program as a cabinet minister. In October 2012, Britain required employers to start automatically enrolling most employees in a pension plan. At the start, contributions must equal at least 2 percent of earnings, half provided by employers. By 2018, contributions must rise to 8 percent, of which 3 percentage points will come from employers. In 2006, the United States encouraged companies to require employees to opt out of a 401(k) instead of choosing to opt in. That means they start saving for retirement automatically if they make no decision. Easing the Pain Rebounding stock prices around the world and a slow rise in housing prices are helping households recover their net worth. In the U.S., retirement accounts -- defined-contribution and defined-benefit plans combined -- hit a record $12.5 trillion the first three months of 2013, according to the Urban Institute. They've gone higher since. However, net worth is merely climbing toward a level considered inadequate at its peak in 2007. Boston College's Center for Retirement Research says the recovery in housing and stock prices still leaves 50 percent of American households at risk of being unable to maintain their standard of living in retirement. That's down from 53 percent in 2010 but up from 44 percent before the Great Recession hit in 2007. Only half of all Japanese say they've even thought about how to finance their retirement. And 63 percent are counting on getting most of their income from a government pension system that's going broke. When they look into the future, retirement experts see more changes in government pensions and longer careers than many workers had expected: • Pension cuts are likely to hit most retirees but should fall hardest on the wealthy. Governments are likely to spend more on the poorest among the elderly, as well as the oldest, who will be in danger of outliving their savings. • Those planning to work past 65 can take some comfort knowing they'll be healthier, overall, than older workers in years past. They'll also be doing jobs that aren't as physically demanding. In addition, life expectancy at 65 now stretches well into the 80s for people in the 34 OECD countries, an increase of about five years since the late 1950s. "My parents retired during the Golden Age of retirement," says Mercer consultant Dreger, 37. "My dad, who is 72, retired at 57. That's not going to happen to somebody in my generation."

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Horovitz: Top 5 ads of 2013 grab your attention

Not one of the top five ads of 2013 was 30 seconds.

Only one was in the 60-second range. Most were closer to three minutes — an eternity in Conventional Ad Land.

Welcome to the New World of advertising. Never mind that Madison Avenue keeps churning out those 30-second jobbers like so much visual landfill.

The best ads of 2013, almost without exception, were made-to-go-viral videos that, for the most part, averaged more than three minutes each.

HOROVITZ: 5 worst ads of 2013 more than stank

But who's counting?

For one, the savviest advertisers are.

They're counting on these viral ads — that actually have a beginning, middle and end — to become YouTube darlings that are passed around with even greater frequency than a joint at a Grateful Dead memorial fest.

USA TODAY marketing reporter Bruce Horovitz(Photo: Jack Gruber, USA TODAY)

They're counting on these viral ads — that actually have a beginning, middle and end — to become YouTube darlings that are passed around with even greater frequency than a joint at a Grateful Dead memorial fest.

Why spend a gazillion dollars on TV media time when you can get millions of Millennials to pass it along for free? This burgeoning trend ultimately will force advertisers, the networks and all of the media world to concoct some sort of mass do-over that unchains ads from 30-second hell.

From bottom to top, here are 2013's best ads — all of which went viral:

5. Chipotle: "The Scarecrow" (Moonbot Studios and CAA Marketing) 3:23. For the first three minutes and 20 seconds of this animated ad, you never see or hear the brand name Chipotle. Perhaps that's why it works so well. A bewildered scarecrow finds itself working for the sinister! Crow Foods. Nothing is as it seems at Crow Foods. Behind the "Natural Foods" billboards are sad cows being injected with hormones. Even the meat that Crow Foods sells comes stamped "100% beef-ish."

This scarecrow, however, mounts a truckload of courage. He quits his day job and returns to his farm to nurture, grow and sell food that's actually food. The ad takes a savvy swipe at America's industrial food complex. And it shows a nation of consumers, hungry for a better way, that Chipotle just may be out in front of the food curve. On a scale of one to five burritos, it's a five.

4. Pepsi Max: "Test Drive" (TBWA/Chiat/Day Los Angeles) 3:46. After this ad lets you in, it locks the car doors and doesn't let you out. The setup is ingenious. Race car champ Jeff Gordon — in a mild-mannered disguise — shows up in the lot of a used car dealership with his eyes on a Camaro. An unsuspecting used car salesman thinks he's found a real sucker and baits him for a test drive.

In fact, it's the salesman who gets snookered the moment after he sits down and slaps on his seat belt. Gordon takes him on the ride of his life. The salesman utters all sorts of censored words and those — along his horrified facial expressions — all are captured by an in-car camera. What sells this ad most of all is the salesman's reaction when the jig is up and he finally realizes that it's all joke and he's the center of it. He casually asks: Wanna do it again? Our suggestion to Pepsi Max: Do it again.

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3. Volvo Trucks: "Epic Split" (Forsman & Bodenfors Gothenburg, Sweden) 1:17. When's the last time you watched an ad with your mouth agape? It's hard to stop watching and re-watching this ad for Volvo Trucks, which features the ever-bendable Jean Claude Van Damme, pulling off Olympic-worthy splits between two Volvo trucks that ever-so-slowly edge away from each other on a sunlit freeway. The only thing between the two trucks: Van Damme and his magical leg act. The music, which sounds like a cross between a Cirque du Soleil track and some Zen-like download of music to meditate by, is perfectly haunting. It's no wonder this has become one of the most-watched auto ads of the year. Did we forget to mention that the two trucks are driving backward?

I'm fine with the fact that the safety line to which Van Damme is attached is air-brushed out of the ad. That's what makes it so much fun to watch. It feels like a high wire act with no net. The purpose of the ad: to demonstrate something dubbed Volvo Dynamic Steering. This may be the only Volvo commercial that you actually remember the day after you watch it. And the day after that.

"Volvo Trucks - The Epic Split feat.(Photo: youtube.com/volvotrucks)

2. Unilever/Dove: "Real Body Sketches" (Ogilvy & Mather, Brazil) 3:01. This ad is one of the most viewed campaigns of the year. With good reason. It oh-so-gently asks women to stop beating themselves up for the way they think that they look. Dove even enlists an FBI sketch artist to draw women as they describe themselves. ("Big chin." "Big forehead." "Big nose.")

Next, he draws them as others describe them. ("Nice chin." "Cute nose." "Nice blue eyes.") The differences between the two drawings couldn't ! be more s! triking. For all of the ads over the years that have tried to convince women that they need to buy lots of stuff and make lots of changes to achieve anything close to a state of beauty, this Dove ad runs the totally opposite direction. Its message: Never mind all that. The beauty is already there. With just a little assist from Dove, of course.

1) TrueMove H mobile: "Giving" (Ogilvy & Mather, Thailand) 3:03. When's the last time you watched an ad — in this case, an ad longer than three minutes — and wanted it to be longer? Maybe even a movie? The gritty street scene shows a desperate, young boy stealing medicine for his ailing mother. He gets caught, but a kindly cafe owner not only not only pays for it, but gives him some food, as well. Flash forward 30 years later: The cafĂ© owner suffers a stroke — even as he's helping yet another beggar. His daughter, overwhelmed with his medical bills, puts the cafe up for sale. Then, she discovers the bill's been paid. That street boy who her father helped 30 years ago, it turns out, is none other than his doctor. He's picked up the tab.

The ad's slogan: "Giving is the best communication." What does any of this all have to do with a mobile phone company? Well, something about communication. But who cares? This is — far and away — the best ad of the year. And, the most beautifully filmed. You might say that in 2013, it's picked up the cosmic tab for the thousands of mostly forgettable ads that the rest of the industry spewed out before it. Yes, this is the ad that keeps on giving.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Twitter Quitters Putting a Crimp on Social Network's IPO

Twitter IPO Test Run (A Twitter app on an iPhone screen is shown in this photo, in New York,  Friday, Oct. 18, 2013. The New YorRichard Drew/AP SAN FRANCISCO -- Retired schoolteacher Donald Hovasse signed up for Twitter about a year ago at the urging of his daughter. He lost interest after trying the service a few times and finding lots of celebrities but few of his friends using the online social network. "I didn't really get the point of it at all," said the Las Vegas resident. "Most of them were people I wasn't interested in hearing what they had to say anyway." He said, however, that he does check Facebook everyday to see what his friends are up to. Hovasse's experience highlights a risk for investors as Twitter marches towards this year's most anticipated initial public offering in the United States, expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange in mid-November. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 36 percent of 1,067 people who have joined Twitter say they don't use it, and 7 percent say they have shut their account. The online survey, conducted Oct. 11-18, has a credibility interval, a measure of its accuracy, of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. In comparison, only 7 percent of 2,449 Facebook members report not using the online social network, and 5 percent say they have shut down their account. The results have a credibility interval of 2.3 percent. People who have given up on Twitter cite a variety of reasons, from lack of friends on the service to difficulty understanding how to use it. Twitter declined to comment for this story, saying it is in a quiet period ahead of its IPO. Twitter's attrition rate highlights a challenge that has dogged the online messaging site over the years: while it has managed to enlist many high-profile and avid users, from the pope to President Barack Obama, Twitter has yet to go truly mainstream in the way Facebook (FB) has. Convincing ordinary people to think of Twitter as an indispensable part of their lives is key to the company's ability to attract advertisers and generate a profit. Twitter reported it had 232 million "active" users -- people who access the service at least once a month -- at the end of September, up 6.1 percent from the end of June. Twitter's quarter-over-quarter growth in active users hasn't exceeded 11 percent since June 2012. When Facebook was a similar size, its active users were increasing by more than 20 percent every quarter, and it wasn't until the social network neared the half-a-billion member mark that its user growth decelerated to 12 percent. "Twitter is a great service, it's still got growth in front of it. But in my opinion, I would say the opportunities are less than that of Facebook, and it has to be valued appropriately," said Dan Niles, chief investment officer of tech-focused hedge fund firm AlphaOne Capital Partners. "The data would seem to imply that the ultimate revenue potential for this company is less than for Facebook," Niles said, referring to Twitter's number of active users. Twitter's revenue in the third quarter more than doubled from the year before to $168.6 million, while its net loss tripled to $64.6 million. Analysts expect Facebook, which is due to report its third-quarter results later this month, to bring in $1.9 billion in quarterly revenue. Quitters Twitter aims to become the "fabric of every communication in the world" and to eventually reach every person on the planet, Chief Executive Officer Dick Costolo has said. Still, Twitter acknowledged in its IPO prospectus that "new users may initially find our product confusing." The company prides itself on staying true to its roots: it lets people send 140-character messages and doesn't pack in scads of extraneous functions. Since its inception, Twitter has resisted overtly manipulating how people use its platform, instead preferring conventions to be formed organically. As a result, new users often find it initially difficult to grasp how discussions ebb and flow, complaining that features such as the "hashtags" that group Tweets by topic, abbreviations for basic functions (for instance, RT for retweet) and shortened Web links, are geared towards a technologically savvy crowd. "The average person that's coming on here, they're still baffled by it," said Larry Cornett, a former executive at Yahoo (YHOO) and designer at Apple (AAPL), who now runs product strategy and design consulting firm Brilliant Forge. "If they want the mass adoption and that daily engagement, they have to make it really easy for people to consume." According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 38 percent of 2,217 people who don't use Twitter said they didn't find it that interesting or useful. Thirteen percent said they don't understand what to use Twitter for. The results have a credibility interval of 2.4 percent. Twitter has taken steps to help new members. In December 2011, it introduced a new "Discover" section to highlight the most popular discussion topics based on a person's location and interests. The company also simplified some features and rolled out new tools that embed photos and videos directly in a person's tweet stream, making for a richer and easier-to-use experience. These changes may mean that Twitter's retention rate for the past several months is better than its overall retention rate, which includes people who joined years ago, say analysts. Brian Wieser, an analyst with Pivotal Research Group, said Twitter's current user base is already big enough to be valuable to advertisers. Investors need to get more comfortable with the idea that Twitter isn't for everyone, he said. "The practical matter is that this is a niche medium," he said. "Their appeal, they will never be as broad as Facebook."

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Americans losing faith in economic recovery: Poll

economy, recovery, washington, politicians

Americans are losing faith in the nation's economic recovery even as forecasters expect growth to accelerate, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.

Fewer people anticipate improvement in the economy's strength over the next year than in the last survey in June, with 27 percent saying the expansion will be more robust, down from 39 percent who expected improvement three months earlier.

Forty-four percent of poll respondents say they expect the economy, which has expanded for nine consecutive quarters, to remain about the same, while 28 percent see it weakening.

“We're still in a recession; I don't know why they say it's over,” says Chris Sams, 28, a disabled Navy veteran from Daingerfield, Texas. “It may be over in Washington, D.C., where the per capita income is higher than anywhere else, but down here the minimum wage is the highest wage.”

The results of the Sept. 20-23 poll reflect public impatience with an economy that has grown at an average rate of 2.1 percent since the recession's June 2009 end, a full percentage point below the 50-year average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Growth will slip to 1.60 percent this year, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, before rebounding to 2.65 percent growth next year.Political conflicts

Public dissatisfaction with the economy is also linked to growing distress over the nation's political conflicts. Only 25 percent of those surveyed said the U.S. is on the right track -- the lowest mark since September 2011, a month after Standard & Poor's downgraded U.S. government debt. Sixty-eight percent say the country is headed down the wrong track.

“You have a bunch of politicians in both parties arguing the finer points and doing nothing about the long run,” says Sams. “Both sides are wrong. Going forward, it's only going to get worse.”

Disputes between Democrats and Republicans over the federal budget, the nation's borrowing limit and President Barack Obama's new health-care law are threatening to trigger a government shutdown or a debt default.

Amid the political turmoil, those polled give little indication they anticipate major financial moves.

More than eight of 10 say they don't plan to take on more debt or borrow money to make ends meet. And pluralities of 40 percent or more say they see no change in either their overall financial security, job security for members of their households, retirement savings, investments, or their ability to spend on vacations or entertainment.Job market

Poll respondents are less optimistic about the job market over the next year than they were in June. The percentage of those foreseeing stronger employment fell to 36 percent from 42 percent in the previous poll. That finding comes as the average number of jobs created each month declined to about 148,000 over the past three months from 172,000 in the three months preceding the last Bloomberg poll.

Fewer Americans also forecast improvement in the housing market with 42 percent saying the situation will get better, down from 51 percent three months ago.

To Thomas Metych, a 63-year-old retiree in Bradenton, Florida, the economy is “terrible,” and he says he expects “more of the same” over the next six months.

While economists in the Bloomberg forecasting survey say the expansion will reach a 3 percent rate by the third quarter of next year, that would come as a surprise to Wendel Smith, 39, of Alpine, Utah. A serial entrepreneur, Smith says he's focusing on online businesses that are less U.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

VW And Hyundai Are Sales Losers Again

The U.S. October car and light truck sales numbers were another reason for the industry to cheer the remarkable run the industry has had since the depth of the recession in 2009 when the American market yielded only sightly more than 9 million units. That figure will likely be closer to 16 million units this year. Although overall sales dipped 4.2% to 1.139 million, some companies had their best October sales in years. The exceptions to the mostly successful month were VW and Hyundai along with stablemate Kia.

VW’s problems in the U.S. are so severe it is a wonder that its American management, led by Jonathan Browning, President and CEO of Volkswagen Group of America, has not be sacked and the entire line up of its cars replaced. It routinely finishes near the bottom of quality measurement surveys. Buyers just don’t like its products. And, it has a desultory line-up which includes the bland Passat and Jetta sedans, the GTI (which is at least fun to drive, but so are many competing vehicles), the ancient Beetle, and overly expensive Touareg SUV which has a name as weird as its design. Even with promotions which include “$0 down, $0 first month’s payment, and $0 at signing”, it cannot forces cars are the doors of its dealerships. VW’s market share in October dropped to 2.8% from 3.1% in the same month last year.

Hyundai and Kia sales have also fallen off a cliff, particularly given that they were the hot brands in the U.S. for several years. A scandal over how each promoted miles per gallon has take a toll so severe that it will take years for each to regain its brand equity–if that ever happens. And, the largest Japanese and U.S. car companies has bench marked the models of the South Korean companies and come up with very effective competing vehicles of their own.

Hyundai, Kia, and VW needed American sales to fuel their marches toward world domination of the car business. They can give up on that strategy now.