Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Obama's China climate deal: Job killer or worth the cost?

obama xi jinping handshake President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping after announcing a deal on climate change. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) President Obama's deal with China to have both countries make deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will cost the U.S. economy tens of billions of dollars a year, according to critics.

And advocates of the agreement say that even if those cost estimates are correct, it would be money well spent.

The case against the deal: "Our economy can't take the president's ideological War on Coal, which will increase the squeeze on middle-class families and struggling miners," said Senator Mitch McConnell, who is about to become Senate majority leader and comes from the coal belt state Kentucky.

Studies prepared on behalf of industry groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce say Obama's efforts thus far to cut greenhouse gasses will cost the economy between $40 billion to $52 billion a year.

The Chamber estimates that the economy will lose an average of 224,000 jobs a year through 2030 due to the weaker economy.

Cook: New Apple HQ 'greenest' on the planet   Cook: New Apple HQ 'greenest' on the planet

The case for the deal: The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that a failure to address climate change could cost the economy about $150 billion a year.

For instance, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 cost about $157 billion, while Superstorm Sandy in 2012 caused about $50 billion in damage. Last year's drought in the West and Great Plains cost $10 billion, while floods in Illinois and Colorado cost another $3 billion.

"Companies are concerned about direct impacts, such as extreme weather damaging facilities or disrupting power, and also indirect impacts, such as higher prices for commodities or insurance," said Janet Peace, vice president of markets and business strategy at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

Peace added that 90% of the nation's largest companies now list climate change or extreme weather as a business risk, and said there's no benefit in delaying action to reduce greenhouse gases.

"The sooner we act, the less costly it will be," she said.

Part of the way the countries plan to cut greenhouse emissions is through more efficient cars and appliances. That can produce sa! vings that balance out the costs of cutting carbon emissions.

The White House estimates that new efficiency standards for appliances will save about $30 billion a year on average through 2030, while improved mileage rules for automakers will save $1.7 trillion through a combination of lower gas prices and reduced gas consumption.

Leonardo DiCaprio challenges UN on climate change

Is China's favorite climate excuse still valid?

Friday, November 7, 2014

Ron Muhlenkamp's Quarterly Memorandum To Investors

My first draft of this letter, which I wrote three weeks ago began with:

Europe has not solved its problems Nor has Japan; Nor has China; Nor has the U.S.

The rest of that draft is now obsolete.

Since mid-September, several items have changed—some economic, some market-related, some psychological.

Economically…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its estimate of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth going forward. Germany (the strongest economy in Europe) has reported disappointing numbers, particularly in capital goods. It looks like Europe is back in recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) lowered its estimates of U.S. GDP growth for the next four years. Crude oil, which was trading in a range of $100-$110/barrel, fell to $82/barrel The surprise was an announcement by Saudi Arabia that they would not try to keep the price above $100/barrel. This is a change from their prior policy.

Markets…

Many hedge funds are having a poor year and are facing redemptions. CalPERS (California Public Employees' Retirement System) announced that they were withdrawing $25 billion from hedge funds. This drives "forced selling" by those funds. The difficulty is estimating the size of the forced selling. Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields fell from a range of 2.40%-2.6% to (briefly) below 2 percent. A huge move in a short period of time, the headline is "A Flight to Quality."

(Mostly) Psychological…

The battle against ISIS in the Middle East. Ebola and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC): It appears that the Center is not prepared for disease control.

All of this together resulted in stock market declines of 7-12% in a month, depending on which index you measure. The size of this "correction" was not unexpected, but the short time frame was unusual. On some days the forced selling appeared to feed on itself and bordered on panic liquidation. As I write this letter on 10/17, this selling has abated, at least for the time being. The good news is that we raised some cash coming into this period, and

Thursday, November 6, 2014

'The Flash' Trailer: 3 Things I Learned

As The Flash, Grant Gustin will confront a world newly overcome with superpowered meta-humans. Sources: YouTube, The CW.

Anyone wondering if Time Warner (NYSE: TWX  ) intends to build an integrated DC television universe got their answer yesterday when Stephen Amell, star of The CW hit Arrow, appeared in the The Flash trailer.

"Take your own advice.... Wear a mask," Amell says. Shortly after, we see Grant Gustin's awkward police scientist, Barry Allen, become the superhero known as The Flash. To me, it's a transformation that seems destined to have far-reaching consequences for fans of the DC universe and Time Warner investors. Here are three reasons why:

1. The DC television universe is overtly connected. Counting the pilot for The Flash, we now have three explicit crossovers with Arrow, which kicks off its third season on Wednesdays this fall. New episodes of The Flash will air Tuesdays in the same 8 p.m. timeslot. Proximity and shared resources makes it likely we'll see even more explicit stabs at creating a shared DC mythos. (Arrow co-creators Andrew Kreisberg and Greg Berlanti are also actively involved with The Flash, as is DC Chief Creative Officer Geoff Johns.)

Arrow star Stephen Amell appears in the pilot episode of The Flash. Credit: The CW.

2. The Flash will be a touchpoint for introducing more menacing meta-humans. Actor Tom Cavanagh plays S.T.A.R. Labs physicist Harrison Wells in the The Flash. In the trailer, he explains the vast repercussions of the superhero's birth. "A dimensional barrier ruptured, unleashing unknown energies into our world: anti-matter, dark energy, x-elements," Wells says. The message? Barry wasn't the only one transformed. Later in the trailer we see bank robber Clyde Mardon (played by Chad Rook) controlling the weather, making him the comic book villain fans will recognize as Weather Wizard and proving Wells' point.

In The Flash, S.T.A.R. Labs tracks mysterious, transformative energy crossing into our world. Credit: The CW.

3. More heroes are coming, soon. The Flash pilot also marks the second time we see a reference to Ferris Air in a CW show based on a DC Comics character, with the last appearance coming in the Arrow season one finale. There's a chance the show's creators are merely teasing fans here, but as fans themselves it's hard to imagine Kreisberg, Berlanti, and Johns not wanting to pay off the reference to Green Lantern at some point in either show. The mere possibility of an appearance should keep most of the core audience engaged.

Barry's first "test-run" is apparently set at a Ferris Air facility. Credit: The CW.

Regardless, Warners' integrated strategy comes at a good time since DC, unlike Marvel, is still in the early stages of expanding its live action universe. Anything that helps further the fan base for that world is bound be good for investors.

Now it's your turn to weigh in. What did you learn from The Flash trailer? Do you envision one or more explicit movie crossovers? Leave your take below, including whether you would buy, sell, or short Time Warner stock at current prices.

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Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Video Technology Guru Peter Thiel Discusses David Einhorn's Short of Amazon

Over the long term, Peter Thiel would not bet against Jeff Bezos and Amazon.com. David Einhorn (Trades, Portfolio) disagrees as he is shorting the still profit-less Amazon.

Thiel thinks it is a good long term strategy to invest for the future, and long term cash flows should be the focus, not current cash flows. 

Also check out: David Einhorn Undervalued Stocks David Einhorn Top Growth Companies David Einhorn High Yield stocks, and Stocks that David Einhorn keeps buyingAbout the author:Canadian Valuehttp://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/
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5 Breakout Stocks to Trade Now

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Trading stocks that trigger major breakouts can lead to massive profits. Once a stock trends to a new high or takes out a prior overhead resistance point, then it's free to find new buyers and momentum players who can ultimately push the stock significantly higher.

Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

Breakout candidates are something that I tweet about on a daily basis. I frequently tweet out high-probability setups, breakout plays and stocks that are acting technically bullish. These are the stocks that often go on to make monster moves to the upside. What's great about breakout trading is that you focus on trend, price and volume. You don't have to concern yourself with anything else. The charts do all the talking.

Ocean Rig UDW

A offshore drilling contractor that's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is Ocean Rig UDW (ORIG), which provides oilfield services for offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production drilling. This stock has been under selling pressure so far in 2014, with shares down sharply by 28%.

If you take a glance at the chart for Ocean Rig UDW, you'll see that this stock has recently come out of a nasty downtrend, that took the stock sharply lower from its recent high of $19.05 to its low of $11.95 a share. Shares of ORIG have now started to rebound off that $11.95 low with strong upside volume flows. That rebound is now quickly pushing shares of ORIG within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ORIG if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $14.14 to $14.50 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 396,994 shares. If that breakout gets started soon, then ORIG will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $15.32 to its 50-day moving average of $15.70 a share, or $16.26 to its 200-day moving average of $16.79 a share.

Traders can look to buy ORIG off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right around some key near-term support levels at $13 to $12.77 a share. One could also buy ORIG off strength once it starts to clear those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Must Read: 5 Big Stocks to Trade for Gains as QE3 Ends

MakeMyTrip

Another online travel player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is MakeMyTrip (MMYT), which provides travel products and solutions in India and internationally. This stock has been on fire so far in 2014, with shares up sharply by 56%.

If you take a glance at the chart for MakeMyTrip, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $21.42 to its intraday high of $30.46 a share. During that uptrend, shares of MMYT have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has also pushed shares of MMYT back above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. Shares of MMYT are now starting to trend within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above some key overhead resistance levels.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MMYT if it manages to break out above some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $31 to $32 a share with high volume. Watch for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 297,260 shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then MMYT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its 52-week high of $36.12 a share.

Traders can look to buy MMYT off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right around its 50-day moving average of $27.51 a share or near its 200-day moving average of $26.49 a share. One can also buy MMYT off strength once it starts to take out those breakout levels share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Must Read: 5 Breakout Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

EXCO Resources

Another independent oil and gas player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is EXCO Resources (XCO), which is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas properties with a focus on shale resource plays in the U.S. This stock has been destroyed by the sellers so far in 2014, with shares down huge by 42%.

If you take a glance at the chart for EXCO Resources, you'll see that this stock just came out of a nasty downtrend, that took shares lower over the last four months from its high of $5.90 to its new 52-week low of $2.12 a share. Shares of XCO have now started to reverse that downtrend over the last few weeks, with shares bouncing higher off that $2.12 low to its recent high of $3.39 a share. Shares of XCO are now starting to trend higher here right above some near-term support levels at $2.63 to $2.50 a share, and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above some key overhead resistance levels.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in XCO if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $3.07 to $3.39 a share and then above its 50-day moving average of $3.60 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 4.52 million shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then XCO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.50 to its 200-day moving average of $4.81 a share.

Traders can look to buy XCO off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at $2.63 to $2.50 a share. One can also buy XCO off strength once it starts to bust above those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Must Read: 10 Stocks Billionaire John Paulson Loves in 2014

Portola Pharmaceuticals

My final breakout trading prospect is biotechnology player Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA), which develops product candidates in the fields of thrombosis and hematology. This stock has been trending hot over the last six months, with shares up sharply by 20%.

If you look at the chart for Portola Pharmaceuticals, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending a bit over the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $24.75 to its recent high of $29.46 a share. During that uptrend, shares of PTLA have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That uptrend has also pushed shares of PTLA back above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. Shares of PTLA are now quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above some key overhead resistance levels.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PTLA if it manages to break out above some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $29.46 to $29.48 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 371,011 shares. If that breakout develops soon, then PTLA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its all-time high of $31.48 a share. Any high-volume move above its all-time high will then give PTLA a chance to make a run at $35 to $40 a share.

Traders can look to buy PTLA off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right around its 50-day moving average of $26.95 a share or near its 200-day moving average of $25.80 a share. One can also buy PTLA off strength once it starts to clear those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a conformable percentage from your entry point.

To see more breakout candidates, check out the Breakout Stocks of the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Must Read: Sell These 5 Scary Stocks Before It's Too Late

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.