Saturday, May 31, 2014

Lockheed Martin Keen on Acquiring This Space Firm

American aerospace and defense giant Lockheed Martin (LMT) recently announced its plans of acquiring the satellite wing of Astrotech Corp. (ASTC), Astrotech Space Operations. Lockheed expects to close the deal by the third quarter of the current year. After the deal closes, Astrotech Space Operations would become the wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin and would operate under the company's Space Systems business segment.

The Deal

According to Astrotech, Lockheed Martin has made an acquisition proposal worth $61 million. But the Maryland-based company has not yet mentioned details regarding the pricing of the deal in the press release. Astrotech's headquarter is in Titusville, Florida. Its division Astrotech Space Operations' know-how lies in the area of "final stages of launch preparation", which would help balance Lockheed Martin's expertise in launching solutions with value added services, and satellite designs. Astrotech Space Operations offers launch services to commercial and government satellite, covering close to 90% of the satellite market in the U.S.

The company already has huge presence in this space with vast satellite operations, in comparison to the operations of Astrotech. But there definitely lies a good reason why Lockheed selected to acquire Astrotech, given that the company is extremely particular about businesses that it plans to takeover. In the press release Lockheed Martin mentioned that the acquisition proposal is subject to Astrotech shareholders approval.

Once that is done, the deal would close and Astrotech would become part of the aeronautics giant. Astrotech Space Operations' top bosses are quite positive about the deal, which is evident from the statement the company's Senior VP Don White made saying "joining Lockheed Martin will benefit our customers and our employees." Following the announcement of Lockheed's intension to buy the assets of the company, shares of Astrotech jumped from $2.25 to $4.59 intraday. The proceeds from the transaction would be used by the company to invest in growth areas such as developing the product line of detect mass spectrometer.

Growing Competition

The aerospace sector is increasingly becoming competitive. The acquisition proposal comes at a time when another Dulles-based industry player Orbital Sciences (ORB) plans to combine with the defense segment of Alliant Techsystems' (ATK) and emerge as a stronger new entity named Orbital ATK. The defense space has been vastly dominated by the United Launch Alliance, which is a joint venture between Chicago-based aircraft major Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin. However, after the $5 billion merger deal to form Orbital ATK is complete, the industry will grow more competitive.

The Astrotech deal would not add much in terms of revenue or profits to the company's financials, but it definitely portrays Lockheed's focus on developing its space operations.

Departing Thoughts

The acquisition is a tiny move made by Lockheed to strengthen its space operations, but from the point of view of Astrotech, the deal looks like a good one for its shareholders. Even Lockheed's space operations would get good support and streamline further. There have been worries regarding the cut in the U.S. defense budget in the recent past, but there's no stopping Lockheed's shares that rose more than 50% in the last one year. Overall, the deal might be a small one, but it looks like a well thought out move.

About the author:Quick PenA seasonal writer with a Management Degree in Finance and interests in automotive, technology, telecommunication and aerospace sectors.
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Has Technological Progress Made Peak Oil Theory Irrelevant?

In 1956, Marion King Hubbert, a prominent geologist for what is now Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A  ) , made a bold prediction. Based on an extensive analysis of reserves and production data, he concluded that U.S. crude oil production would peak at some point in the late 1960s or early 1970s, after which it would begin an inexorable decline.

For decades, his dire prediction looked startlingly accurate. In 1970, U.S. oil production reached 9.6 million barrels a day -- a level that hasn't been equaled since -- and then began to decline. It fell steadily from 1970 to 1976, and then rose modestly until 1985, after which it once again slipped into a steady decline that lasted for more than two decades.

Hubbert's prediction laid the path for what has since become known as peak oil theory, a highly influential theory that argues that global oil production is rapidly approaching, or has already reached, a peak. Some advocates of the theory even warn that once oil runs out, chaos will ensue, leading to "war, starvation, economic recession" and perhaps "even the extinction of homo sapiens."

A line of cars at a gas station in Maryland in June 1979. Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons.

But then something happened that almost no one had predicted. Starting in 2008, U.S. crude oil production began to grow, slowly at first and then much more rapidly after 2011. Last year, it averaged nearly 7.5 million barrels per day, the highest level since 1989, and recently reached 8.43 million barrels per day, a level not seen since October 1986. So what happened?

How technology changed the game
At the risk of oversimplifying, technology happened. Specifically, the widespread application of advanced drilling techniques, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, allowed energy companies to tap vast deposits of oil and natural gas buried in shale formations thousands of feet below the ground.

Not only have technological improvements boosted U.S. crude oil production to levels not seen since the 1980s, but they've also helped boost crude oil reserves to their highest level since the 1970s. As of the beginning of 2013, U.S. proven crude oil reserves stood at 30.5 billion barrels. That represents an increase of 11.5 billion barrels, or 60%, from year-end 2008 levels, even as 8.4 billion barrels were produced over that time period.

Proven reserves are defined as those that can be economically extracted at current prices using existing technology with a reasonable degree of certainty, meaning a probability of at least 90%. The reason proven reserves have increased so sharply is a combination of new discoveries, more thorough appraisals of existing fields, and technological improvements that have improved recovery rates.

Shale resource potential continues to grow
Take North Dakota's Bakken shale, for instance, one of the largest shale oil discoveries in North America. As operators have improved their drilling techniques in the Bakken over the past few years, they've opened up an entirely new play called the Three Forks formation -- a deeper, separate formation that rests directly below the Bakken and extends much further out into parts of Montana and South Dakota.

An oil rig in North Dakota's Bakken shale. Photo credit: Ole Jorgen Bratland / Statoil ASA.

As a result, total reserves for the Bakken/Three Forks are now estimated to be almost 900 billion barrels, up from roughly 570 billion barrels in 2010. While only about 3.5% of this oil is currently thought to be recoverable, technological advances could drive that percentage significantly higher. Already, improvements in drilling efficiency and smarter well completion methods have allowed several Bakken operators to coax much more oil and gas from their wells.

For instance, Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR  ) , the leading Bakken driller, has seen tremendous initial success from testing tighter spacing between its wells. The company recently drilled 14 horizontal wells spaced 1,320 feet apart in the in the southern part of its Three Forks acreage that produced 50% more oil and gas in their first three months of production than the company's average Bakken well.

This technique of spacing wells closer together -- known as downspacing -- is also yielding encouraging results for Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE: KOG  ) , another Bakken driller that's currently evaluating 800-foot spacing and 600- to 650-foot spacing between wellbores as part of its Polar Pilot projects. Initial results from these pilot programs suggest that the company will be able to unlock additional drilling locations through tighter-density drilling without interfering with existing wells.

Is peak oil theory still relevant?
As these examples highlight, continued improvements in drilling technology have allowed energy companies to tap previously unreachable shale formations, resulting in a sharp increase in production and reserves. In the years ahead, operators may turn to enhanced recovery methods such as carbon dioxide injections to boost recovery rates even further.

Still, I don't think these developments render peak oil theory irrelevant. Even though technology has unlocked vast new reserves, fossil fuels are finite resources, after all, and will eventually run out. Technological improvements can merely extend the amount of time before that happens. Eventually, though, there's no denying that we must wean ourselves off fossil fuels.

OPEC is absolutely terrified of this game-changer
As the debate over peak oil theory highlights, America's domestic energy landscape is changing radically. U.S. oil production continues to surge as our country moves closer to energy independence. And there is one company front and center that is poised to make its investors rich. Warren Buffett has already committed to it, and you can too. Click here to learn about this company in the Motley Fool's special report: OPEC's Worst Nightmare.

YouTube: Well-Positioned for Long-Term Growth

Google's  (NASDAQ: GOOG  )  YouTube platform is by far the biggest and most influential player in the online video advertising market. Consumers are increasingly leaning toward watching videos online, as the rapid growth in mobile devices continues. Estimates from ZenithOptimedia suggest that the online video advertising market will grow to as much as $10 billion annually by 2016. YouTube will likely be the biggest beneficiary of this trend. 

Robust growth
YouTube saw fantastic growth in 2013, as gross revenue surged 51.4%. Google doesn't disclose revenue for YouTube as a separate line item, but according to estimates from eMarketer, YouTube earned gross revenue of $5.6 billion in 2013, up from $3.7 million in 2012. After paying content creators on its platform, YouTube earned net ad revenue worldwide of $1.18 billion and $1.96 billion in 2012 and 2013, respectively. 

YouTube disclosed that 75% of its in-stream ads are now skippable using the TrueView ad format. More than 1 million advertisers use Google's YouTube ad platforms, mostly comprised of small businesses. Google's management has stated that much of the explosive growth in YouTube's ad revenue have been due to the TrueView ad format, in which an advertiser pays only for those ads which a user watches. 

YouTube can get much bigger through better targeting. Marketers heavily favor targeted ads, as evidenced by Google's consistent double-digit growth in revenue from search ads. Higher utilization of targeted ads on various Google and AdSense partner sites should translate into much higher growth in video ad revenue for Google. 

Global reach
YouTube incentivizes users to upload content by sharing a majority of the ad revenue generated from their content. As a result, the amount of content being uploaded has surged to 100 hours of video every minute. The company should continue to see strong growth in user-generated content, or UGC.

Its large audience is viewing in excess of 6 billion hours of video each month. YouTube has tremendous reach worldwide -- more than 80% of its web traffic comes from outside the U.S. And according Nielsen, YouTube reaches more U.S. adults ages 18-34 than any cable network. According to comScore data, YouTube's reach among the U.S. Internet video audience stood at 83.7%, or 156 million users, which shows the company's broad reach in the domestic market. 

Bigger bets on online video
Growth in the online video market is attracting more investment in the space. Yahoo! consistently ranks among the top five video publishers, and now the company is ramping up its video content offerings. Yahoo! will launch two new comedy shows on its Internet portal, and it also struck an agreement with the world's largest live events company, Live Nation, to stream live concerts daily. Yahoo! and Live Nation will split the advertising revenue derived from the online video sales 50/50. 

In addition, Walt Disney  (NYSE: DIS  )  bought a company called Maker Studios for $500 million. Maker produces video series on YouTube. Disney has a significant presence in online video properties due to its ownership of leading content platforms such as ESPN, ABC, etc. and its partial ownership of Hulu. Making such a sizable bet on the prospects of a major producer on YouTube goes to show the value of online video and YouTube, in particular.

The heightened interest in online video by newer players in the market like Disney and Yahoo! can be attributed to the pricing of online video ads. According to Media Dynamics, the average online video ad carried twice the price of a national TV commercial. Cost per thousand impressions, or CPM, ranged on average between $20-$23 for online videos of various lengths. A national TV 30-second commercial had an average CPM of $9-$10.  

In the display advertising market, roughly half of all the ad dollars go to the five leading companies: Facebook, Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and AOL. YouTube's strong metrics across the board will aid Google in running even farther ahead of the pack. 

Going forward
YouTube has built a gigantic user base and is clearly the 800-pound gorilla in the Internet video space. The company has thousands of content creators who are uploading huge amounts of video every minute, and YouTube is a preferred destination for leading brand marketers trying to reach millennials. The company should continue to earn the lion's share in the online video advertising business.

Are you ready to profit from this $14.4 trillion revolution?
Let's face it, every investor wants to get in on revolutionary ideas before they hit it big. Like buying PC-maker Dell in the late 1980s, before the consumer computing boom, or purchasing stock in e-commerce pioneer Amazon.com in the late 1990s, when it was nothing more than an upstart online bookstore. The problem is, most investors don't understand the key to investing in hyper-growth markets. The real trick is to find a small-cap "pure-play" and then watch as it grows in explosive fashion with its industry. Our expert team of equity analysts has identified one stock that's poised to produce rocket-ship returns with the next $14.4 trillion industry. Click here to get the full story in this eye-opening report.

Friday, May 30, 2014

Will Maleficent Do In Disney?

Not likely, says Wunderlich’s Matthew Harrigan of Walt Disney’s (DIS) Sleeping Beauty reboot starting Angelina Jolie. He explains:

A likely $55-60mm opening for Maleficent should belie what once were expectations that the supposed $170mm production cost project would emerge as Disney’s next major write-off. This is despite the twists in marketing a film that is in somewhat of a no-man’s land between an action film and a fairy tale fantasy. Although we are still modeling a slight decrease in F2015 film profit even with the advent of The Avengers: Age of Ultron we still have the studio earning near $1.2B. We value the studio at a likely Street high $19.1B. Event films from Disney Animation, Disney live action, Pixar, Marvel and LucasFilm support a top position even with fewer releases than other studios. We are therefore slightly increasing our S&P 500 linked price target on Hold-rated Disney to $83 from $77.

Shares of Walt Disney have dipped 0.1% to $83.96 at 1:29 p.m. today.

Beat 85% of Investors with These Steps

I want to start today's article with a quick survey.

Don't worry; it's going to be short, only a couple of questions, and you're the only person who is going to know your answers. So improve your investing savvy and answer honestly.

It might just help you make a lot of money - and sleep better at night...

First question: When the markets hit a rough spot this last March, did you start selling your stocks? If the answer to that question is "yes," what methodology did you use to justify your selling?

Second question: If you did sell your stocks, what methodology do you now plan on using to know when it's time to buy again?

Here's a quick hint: Unless you can quickly answer both of those questions without having to think about it, the answer may be "none" or "no methodology."

Don't feel bad; every investor (including yours truly) has, at one point or another, made an investment decision without a clear plan (or methodology behind the decision).

Here's why that can be such a bad idea, and here's how to tap into the tremendous profits out there if you break out...

What Most Investors Do Wrong

According to Barron's, a whopping 85% of all investor "sell" or "exchange" decisions are wrong. Yikes!

The cycle typically looks like this...

The market starts to sell off (for any number of reasons), investors get spooked and sell their stocks right at (or just before) the point of maximum pessimism (which usually is very close to the bottom).

Once they're out of stocks they take their cash and plow it into safe assets like bonds just in time to miss the beginning of the next leg up in stocks. Once their capital is invested in bonds, they have no idea when to shift back into stocks, mainly because of an emotional bias that leaves them too frightened to take on risk.

If that sounds familiar, again, don't worry - you're not alone. Everyone has made this kind of mistake at least once. We'll just make sure it doesn't happen again.

Instead of using market pullbacks as an excuse to bury your head in the sand and catch up on Dancing with the Stars episodes, you can step up your due diligence to create a buy list of your next investment targets.

At first it might seem uncomfortable to be preparing to buy stocks in the face of uncertainty - but don't worry - you're going to be in great company. Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, and John Templeton all made their fortunes targeting stocks once they were put on sale by market volatility....so let's follow their lead.

Here are two steps you can take that will not only give you an answer to the questions at the top of the this article, but will also let you use market volatility to your advantage, which is exactly what professional traders do every day.

Step #1
Set Your "Sell" Plan, Before You Buy

The first step: Always make sure you have an exit strategy (or plan regarding when you'll sell) before you hit the "buy" button. This will ensure that you're always making predetermined strategic decisions rather than emotional decisions.

Here are two of my favorite exit strategies: trailing stops and scaling out of a position.

Most people think of trailing stops as a way to protect their downside. While they are great at minimizing losses, they really shine in capturing profits. As your position increases in value, simply tighten up your trailing stop to increase your potential profit.

Strategy Note: Your initial trailing stop and the amount to which you tighten your trailing stop is entirely up to you and should be based on your own risk tolerance. Personally, one of my favorite strategies is to: 1) begin with a 25% trailing stop, 2) once my position is up 30% I like to tighten my stop up to a 19% trailing stop, which makes my stop 5% over my entry price, 3) once my position is up 40% I'll tighten my trailing stop to 15%, 4) and once my position is up 50% I'll settle in with a trailing stop of 12.5% for the remainder of the holding period - or until I get to a 100% gain, which is when I'll start scaling out of the position.

Legendary investor Jesse Livermore summed it up simply and eloquently when he said "you never go broke capturing a profit." Exactly right, and that's why I like to tighten up my trailing stop along the way - especially the first move, which puts my stop 5% over my entry price.

It's worth mentioning, though, that once you tighten up your trailing stop, you do increase the risk of getting stopped out - but I'm totally okay with that because the tighter trailing stop also reduces my odds of letting a winner turn into a loser.

Livermore's second strategy is to sell half of any position once it achieves a 100% or more gain. Professional traders call this "scaling out" of a position. Livermore would refer to this simply as "playing with the house's money" because you effectively take your initial investment off the table and what you're left with is all profit - or the house's money.

The beauty of this strategy is that the freed-up capital created by scaling out of the position can then be used to establish a new position. If you do this a couple of time in a row, your initial allocation of capital can turn into several positions. It's a great way to build multiple positions with a single tranche of capital.

Just like trailing stops, you can choose to start scaling out of a position at any time. The key is that you know, in advance, when you plan on tightening up your trailing stops and when you intend to begin scaling out of a position.

Step #2
Rebalance Your Profits

Moving on to the second step: rebalancing.

I can't emphasize enough how important it is to stay in the markets - and the best way to remain invested is to use the Money Map Report's 50-40-10 model.

In case you're not familiar with the 50-40-10, it is a risk-parity portfolio structure pioneered by Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist for the Money Map Report. Here's a quick rundown...

50% of your assets: invested in what we refer to as "Base Builders," which includes assets such as Vanguard Wellington Fund, sovereign debt, muni bonds, corporate debt, etc.

40% of your assets: invested in what we refer to as "Growth and Income," which are stocks with global exposure to some of the world's largest trends, solid cash flow, rock solid balance sheets, and an above average yield.

10% of your assets: invested in what we refer to as "Rocket Riders", which is where you'll find speculative positions such as small-cap stocks. History suggests that by limiting your speculative positions to just 10% of your overall capital, you maximize your potential return while at the same time keeping your overall risk to a razor-thin level.

Now let's get back to rebalancing.

If you're using a predetermined exit strategy like the example I discussed above (or any other predetermined strategy, for that matter), you will, at some point, find yourself with cash to re-deploy. When that happens, calculate the different allocations between the Base Builders, Growth and Income, and Rocket Riders to find out what portion of your portfolio is overweight and where it's underweight. Deploy your freed-up cash into whatever portion of your portfolio is underweight.

Let me give you a simple real-world example to clarify the above.

For the sake of this example, let's assume your entire portfolio is worth $1,000,000, with the following breakdown: $500,000 (or 50%) is currently in your Base Builders positions, $390,000 (or 39%) is currently in your Growth and Income positions, $100,000 (or 10%) in currently in your Rocket Riders positions, and $10,000 is sitting in cash due to your recent winning trade.

In the example above, both your Base Builders and Rocket Riders are in line, with 50% and 10% of your total portfolio, respectively - but your Growth and Income (at 39%) is a little below your target of 40%, therefore it's "underweight."

In order to bring your 50-40-10 structure back in line, you can redeploy your $10,000 worth of cash into an investment that qualifies as a Growth and Income asset and your portfolio structure will then be back to the desired 50-40-10.

If you don't want to redeploy the cash right away, that's fine. You can also wait for a predetermined time (quarterly, bi-annually, annually, etc.) and then rebalance all of your holdings at one time.

The key here is that it's a predetermined time - not a time based on your discretion, because that could leave you open to emotional biases, which typically work against you.

The beauty of rebalancing is that it takes all the guessing out of the equation because it forces you to sell the assets that have increased in value (and are subsequently overweight) and buy assets that have gone down in price (and are subsequently underweight).

That means you're following the golden rule of investing... buy low, sell high. And profit.

Fidelity’s Durbin: RIAs Thriving; Top Clients See Robo-Advisors as Positive Trend

Less than a year after a major reorganization of Fidelity Institutional's clearing business, Mike Durbin, president of Fidelity Institutional Wealth Services, reports that the RIA custodian is doing quite well, thank you, with total client assets under custody of more than $750 billion as of year-end 2013. In that year, 109 net new RIA firms, with an average of $127 million in assets under management, chose to custody with Fidelity IWS.

In an interview Thursday, Durbin noted that the data from new firms doesn’t include RIAs or registered reps who joined an existing RIA firm. “It’s a good business,” he said, helped by “the prevailing tailwind in this broadly defined independent space,” but also by “great new net asset flow from existing” Fidelity IWS RIA firms, along with new firms that are “being created and/or joining us.”

Admitting that “it helps to have an S&P at 1,900,” the trends pushing the independent space continue, he argues, notably “bigger and better RIAs getting bigger and better.” While not that long ago it was “rare to have a $1 billion RIA, now there are more and more” achieving that benchmark in AUM through organic growth and expansion either geographically or through mergers and acquisitions, producing a “growing cadre of pan-regional” RIA firms.

That overall growth in the industry, and Fidelity’s investment over the past few years in “reinventing” its technology platform and service offerings, “allows us to be more strategic with our clients,” Durbin said, helping in particular firms around the $500 million mark to leap over that hurdle where too often “the principal wears too many hats.” Instead, the fastest-growing firms, which Fidelity calls “high performers,” are being run as businesses, with a “clear segregation of duties and clear processes,” creating “real firms with real management teams that can provide leverage” to that overworked principal.

While Durbin says “we have a very strong base proposition for all our clients” around brokerage and custody, operations and service, the notion of keeping an eye on the bigger, fastest-growing firms "allows us to provide our more human-capital-intensive programs” to those high performers, such as practice management consulting or succession planning or even M&A financing through its partnership with Live Oak Bank. “We want to earn a seat at their conference room table with them,” he says of the fastest-growing firms.

There’s another angle to what Fidelity IWS does for its clients, Durbin says, and that’s where so-called robo-advisors come in. “Our role is to understand the landscape and educate our clients” about trends and technology, which is reflected in a number of initiatives at the firm. They include the launch of the physical and virtual Office of the Future (see article by Danielle Andrus on ThinkAdvisor). Fidelity also held a summit — Emerging Affluent/Digital Advisor Day — in which certain Fidelity clients gathered with “digital advisor,” or robo-advisor, technology pioneers “to explore how our clients can work with them or even create their own offering” along with options to leverage technology to attract and efficiently serve certain underserved client segments. In that vein, during its recent Executive Forum conference, to which Fidelity’s top broker-dealer (National Financial) and IWS (RIA) clients are invited, a poll of attendees focused on web-based digital advisors. It found that 74% saw the rise of robo-advisors as a “positive industry trend that is here to stay,” though 54% said that “digital advisors cannot replace the human element of advice.” However, only 13% of the executives surveyed said they felt “very informed” about robo-advisor models.

Durbin was quick to point out that clients at the Executive Summit tend to be more sophisticated, making it unsurprising that they “see the trend around the digital advisor” but also that they expect Fidelity to help educate and guide them around “new technologies that should be leveraged by us as their service providers." However, the attributes of robo-advisors — a user-friendly interface, unbundling of services, aggregating client data — suggests how advisor technology should evolve to help attract “these Gen X and Gen Y cohorts.”

So Fidelity’s role, Durbin concluded, was to help its clients “learn a lot more” and to help them “pivot to embrace these technologies,” and to determine “which ones can be a solution for them and which we should mimic.”

Durbin points outh that “if these technologies are embraced the right way, a broader segment of the U.S. population will be able to get advice,” and that we may well be “at the early stages of a virtuous cycle in getting people to be prepared for retirement and financial independence.”

Thursday, May 29, 2014

After a Big Rally, Are Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Shares Too Pricey?

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC  ) has been one of the best-performing large energy stocks this year, with shares up nearly 30% year to date. The company's outperformance is due largely to a favorable settlement of the Tronox case, in which Anadarko was required to pay a much lower-than-expected penalty for environmental liabilities.

But despite the significant uplift in Anadarko's valuation, I think the company may still be reasonably undervalued. Given its exceptional track record of deepwater success and massive opportunity in the Delaware Basin's Wolfcamp shale -- one of the most promising new oil discoveries in America -- I think Anadarko shares deserve to command a premium valuation.

Photo credit: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Barclays downgrade
Barclays recently downgraded Anadarko to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing valuation concerns, though the bank maintains a $111 price target on the stock. Barclays' analyst Thomas Driscoll explained that, despite Anadarko's strong asset portfolio and impressive track record, there is better value elsewhere in the energy sphere.

He mentioned Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR  ) , EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG  ) , and Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL  ) as three similarly sized companies that look more attractive from a valuation standpoint. All three are likely to grow twice as fast as Anadarko, yet trade at comparable valuations in terms of debt-adjusted cash-flow multiples using 2015 cash flow estimates (7.6x, 6.1x and 7.2x for Continental, EOG, and Noble, respectively, as compared to 7.3x for Anadarko Petroleum).

While I do agree with his argument that there is better value elsewhere among the large independent E&Ps, I think Anadarko still presents reasonable value at its current price of around $100 a share. This is mainly because I think the company deserves a premium multiple over most of its peers given its exceptional track record of deepwater success and its massive opportunity in the Delaware Basin.

Why Anadarko deserves a premium valuation
Along with Statoil (NYSE: STO  ) , which was last year's leading oil and gas explorer in terms of total volume of conventional oil and gas discovered, Anadarko is one of the best deepwater oil and gas drillers in the world. Last year, it achieved an industry-leading 67% success rate on its deepwater exploration and appraisal wells.

In the Gulf of Mexico, encouraging appraisal results from the Shenandoah Basin, as well as the Coronado and Yucatan discoveries, suggest the company could be sitting on some of the most prolific deepwater blocks in the entire Gulf of Mexico -- suggesting major long-term upside from their development.

In addition to its robust portfolio of deepwater opportunities, Anadarko maintains sizable stakes in south Texas' Eagle Ford shale, Colorado's Wattenberg field, and west Texas' Delaware Basin. While the Eagle Ford and Wattenberg are already key drivers of the company's oil production growth, its massive opportunity in the Delaware Basin's emerging Wolfcamp shale -- hailed as potentially one of the largest oil and gas discoveries in America -- may not be reflected in its share price.

Anadarko, which boasts roughly 600,000 gross acres in the Wolfcamp, has been aggressively ramping up activity in the play with highly encouraging results so far. Six wells drilled in the third quarter of 2013 yielded gross processed IP rates in the range of 1,000 to 1,600 BOE per day, while first-quarter Wolfcamp sales volumes grew almost threefold over the fourth quarter of 2013. This year, Anadarko plans to drill more than 80 Wolfcamp wells using an 8-10 rig drilling program.

Crucially, the company has already identified more than 1,000 drilling locations across the acreage it has evaluated so far, which represents just a fifth of its total acreage. As the company de-risks its remaining acreage, significant upside could result from the existence of numerous stacked-pay intervals, which could meaningfully boost the company's resource base and its net asset value (NAV) -- an almost certain catalyst to boost its share price.

Investor takeaway
Anadarko may not be as compelling an investment opportunity as it was earlier this year, when uncertainty surrounding the Tronox case severely depressed its valuation, but I think it still presents decent near-term upside and compelling long-term value given its high-quality and diversified global portfolio, exceptional track record of deepwater success, and massive opportunity in the Delaware Basin.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Making Bonus Depreciation Permanent to Be Debated by House Panel

The House Committee on Ways and Means plans to mark up on Thursday H.R. 4718, to provide a permanent extension of bonus depreciation, as well as other tax extenders that deal with retirement planning and charitable giving.

In the absence of comprehensive tax reform, the Tax Foundation argues that “a permanent extension” of the bonus depreciation “is the best option to spur investment, lift wages, grow the economy, create jobs and increase federal revenue.”

The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank, says that bonus deprecation would have a large impact on the economy and, according to the foundation’s analysis, be a revenue gainer in the long term in terms of:

The committee also plans to mark up on Thursday the following tax extenders that deal with retirement planning and charitable giving:

HR 4619, “to make permanent the rule allowing certain tax-free distributions from individual retirement accounts for charitable purposes”; HR 4719, “to permanently extend and expand the charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory”; HR 3134, “Charitable Giving Extension Act”; HR 4691, “to modify the tax rate for excise tax on investment income of private foundations.”

-- Check out Top 9 Biggest Tax Scams of 2013 on ThinkAdvisor

Vera Bradley Plunges 10% as Earnings Guidance Disappoints

At first glance, Vera Bradley’s (VRA) earnings report looked great. The retailer reported a profit of 37 cents a share, above analyst forecasts of 32 cents.

But in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of the stock market, that was the past, and the present and future, well they don’t look so hot. For the third quarter, the Vera Bradley, which competes against Coach (COH) and Michael Kors (KORS), among others, now expects sales between $128 million to $130 million, below forecasts for about $147 million, and a profit of 30 cents to 35 cents, below forecasts for a 48-cent profit. In 2014, Vera Bradley expects sales of $535 million to $540 million, below forecasts for $575, while its earnings should come in between $1.47 and $1.52, below expectations of $1.72. And did I mention that its margins are expected to decline too? 

Put it all together and you have a recipe for a big drop. Vera Bradley’s shares have plunged 10% to $17.50 in after-hours trading.

Ouch.

Could Anti-EU Vote Be Good for Markets?

Should the European Parliamentary elections matter for the markets?

The results leave some of Europe's mainstream politicians with bloody noses after the rise of the populist and euro skeptic vote. Perversely enough, anti-E.U. sentiment could ultimately benefit equities and bonds.

Indeed, European equity markets jumped on Monday and then edged higher again Tuesday.

In spite of the results at the past weekend’s elections, the power structure within the European Union still rests mainly with the national governments, who act through the European Commission and leaders’ summits.

Although the European Parliament enacts legislation and has supervisory powers, its impact tends to be on a micro level, relating to regulations it enacts and budget expenditures. So the direct effect of this week’s polls is likely to be marginal for markets.

The indirect effect could be more substantial.  After years of recession and austerity, it seems plenty of Europeans are saying “enough.” Behind the scenes, governments will work hard to ensure the anti-E.U. tide doesn’t gather strength, because all are fundamentally committed to the European project. But U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, has already called other European leaders asking for them to listen to the views expressed by voters. With a general election coming up, he is likely to be especially reactive, but further moves to encourage growth among Europe's still-ailing economies could encourage governments to clear the way for the European Central Bank to launch a seriously aggressive policy response.

That is likely to start at next week's policy meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi has hinted heavily that more central bank easing would be coming, subject to economic data. Well, the data have been disappointing–growth in the single currency region was muted during the first quarter and looks to have slowed further in the second. Inflation is still too low and credit provision continues to contract.

Indeed, in a speech on Monday, Mr Draghi gave markets another nudge that the ECB was planning further action, warning about the risks of the euro zone sliding into a deflationary spiral.

E.U. governments know that without economic recovery the anti-E.U. tendency will only grow. To that end they’re likely to ease political roadblocks that have so far hamstrung the ECB. This could finally tilt the central bank towards radical solutions, such as a large asset purchase program–known as quantitative easing–or to negative interest rates. To the benefit of both the equity and bond markets.

 

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

J.C. Penney: Kicking Ron Johnson Will Not Make Profits Come Back

J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) reported second-quarter 2013 results before markets opened this morning. The venerable retailer reported an adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) loss of $2.16, as well as $2.66 billion in revenues. In the same period a year ago, J.C. Penney reported an EPS loss of $0.37 on revenue of $3.02 billion. This morning’s results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for an EPS loss of $1.06 and $2.76 billion in revenue.

On a GAAP basis, J.C. Penney posted an EPS loss of $2.66, which includes a $0.99 per share charge for a loss associated with a tax valuation allowance. That hardly makes a difference.

The company's CEO said:

Since I returned to jcpenney four months ago, we have moved quickly to stabilize our business – both financially and operationally – and we have made meaningful progress in important areas of the business. There are no quick fixes to correct the errors of the past. That said, we have identified the challenges, put solid plans in place to address them and have experienced and capable people in key roles to do so. … Moving forward, we're focusing our efforts on regaining customer loyalty by offering trusted brands, award winning service and affordability that families can depend on.

Same-store sales fell 11.9% in the quarter. That awful performance was attributed to "the Company's failed prior merchandising and promotional strategies, which resulted in unusually high markdowns and clearance levels in the second quarter."

That is not all the previous CEO took a few lumps for. J.C. Penney's Home department dragged down same-store sales by 2.4% due to "the lengthy renovation and disappointing re-merchandising" of the department.

Okay, so former CEO Ron Johnson did not have the formula to turn around J.C. Penney's business. We get it. But maybe it is time to stop blaming him for all the company's ills and come up with better ideas than the ones that Johnson was brought in to fix in the first place.

Wisely, the company did not offer any guidance because it really does not have a clue. The consensus analysts' estimates call for a third quarter EPS loss of $0.80 on revenues of $2.96 billion. For the full year, the consensus estimate calls for a loss of $3.49 per share on revenues of $12.32 billion. Those estimates are now consigned to the dustbin of history. The situation will be much worse than that.

Shares are up 1.4% in premarket trading this morning, at $13.40 in a 52-week range of $12.34 to $32.55. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $16.25 before today's results were announced.

Summer Trading Plan

Leadership from the S&P 500 continues, leaving the broad-based index poised to own the previously insurmountable 1900. There seems to be little in the S&P 500's way except, perhaps, a bit of market inertia.

With few profit reports scheduled in the days ahead and a light economic calendar until the second half of the week (see figure 3 at the end of this post), it will take select asset classes to rise up to lead the market heading into the summer months. Which will it be? After all, low volatility has not extended to all stock sectors.

For now, nearly all members of the S&P 500, or 98% of the index's total market capitalization, have reported Q1 earnings. Total results were up 1.3% from a year ago on a 2.7% increase in revenues, according to Zacks Investment Research. Nearly 70% of reporting companies beat Street expectations, but a slimmer 52% had positive revenue surprises – a fact not lost on investors already looking ahead to the Q2 reporting season.

As the latest round wraps up, homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) is among a handful of companies to report Wednesday. Retailers are back in focus Thursday as Costco (COST), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and PacSun (PSUN) are due to report. Ann Taylor (ANN) issues its latest results Friday morning.

The relatively orderly earnings reporting season is one possible reason for the quiet trading of the past few weeks. Keep in mind that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped to levels not seen in over a year, at 11.36, and is now a far cry from its 2014 high of 21.48 hit February 3.

VIX tracks the implied volatility priced into S&P 500 Index options and typically falls to low levels when market participants feel confident (sometimes overly confident!) about the outlook for the stock market. VIX is sometimes called the "fear gauge" due to its tendency to spike during periods of market turmoil and heightened investor anxiety.

One Size Does Not Fit All

Indeed, implied volatility eased across much of the listed options market, but the size of the decline has varied from one asset class to the next. For instance, the CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) fell below 14 but is still above the mid-November lows of 12.17. VXN is computed using the same VIX methodology, but applied to NASDAQ 100 (NDX) options contracts—an index largely made up of technology shares and some of the momentum-stock darlings that have yanked the stock market in two directions in 2014.

At current levels, VXN is 20% higher than the CBOE Volatility Index. There were times in 2013 when the VXN actually dipped below VIX. However, when the large-cap tech names that dominate the NASDAQ 100 were under pressure in April, VXN hit a high of 22.65 while VIX stayed in the mid-teens (figure 1). At its most extreme, VXN was 40% higher than VIX—the largest difference since before the financial crisis.

TD Ameritrade_Kinahan Blog_Image 1_5 27 14

Figure 1: Chart showing the percentage difference between the S&P 500–tracking VIX and the NASDAQ 100–tracking VXN, with VXN running well above VIX. Data source: CBOE. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Picking on the Little Guy

Small-cap stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 over the past few months as well. Consequently, the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) has not seen the same dramatic decline as VIX. RVX uses the same VIX methodology applied to options on the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT). While VIX is dropping below 12, RVX is north of 18. The percentage difference between the two recently increased to 62%—the greatest difference since 2006 (figure 2).

TD Ameritrade_Kinahan Blog_Image 2_5 27 14

Figure 2: Chart showing the percentage difference between the S&P 500–tracking VIX and the Russell 2000 small cap–tracking RVX, currently at 62% or the greatest difference since 2006. Data source: CBOE. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500 is making another stab at record highs and VIX is falling to its lowest levels in over a year. Yet, the NASDAQ Composite is 2.1% below its March highs and the Russell 2000 is still 7.6% from 2014 highs. With the decline in volatility jagged across asset classes, it will be interesting to see whether some groups, such as the NASDAQ big-tech names or the Russell small caps, will grab the flag and charge in the weeks ahead. Or, will volatility in the large-cap names dominating the S&P 500 begin to catch up?

Welcome Back

There's no question that volume has been paper thin and in this holiday-shortened week, there's little reason to believe volume will increase significantly. I know you may be tired of the lectures that have been this blog's recurring theme: "Be vigilant." "Watch the downside." How about if I frame it in the form of that well-worn market mantra: The market goes up using the stairs and down by jumping out the window.

Monday, May 26, 2014

Investors vs. Speculators: Knowing When to Shed a Client

“Nowhere does history indulge in repetitions so often or so uniformly as in Wall Street. When you read contemporary accounts of booms or panics, the one thing that strikes you most forcibly is how little either stock speculation or stock speculators today differ from yesterday.  The game does not change and neither does human nature.”

The quote above will sound familiar to advisors who have had to tell worried investors about market cycles and the need to sit tight during volatile periods. What’s surprising is where this statement comes from: a 1923 novel, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written by American writer Edwin Lefèvre in a fictionalized investment biography of speculator Jesse Lauriston Livermore.

Steve Blumenthal, CMG Capital founderAlthough nearly a century has passed since the novel was first published, it still stands as one of the best investment books that Steve Blumenthal (left), the Philadelphia-based founder of CMG Capital Management and a Merrill Lynch veteran, has ever read. The book was passed on to Blumenthal when he was a young institutional broker at Merrill Lynch by his mentor, John Ray, a portfolio manager at Delaware Funds.

“In 1984 and for years that followed, I would walk a few blocks from 15th and Market in downtown Philadelphia to John Ray’s office,” CMG’s chief executive recalls in “The Blumenthal Viewpoint: Behavior Gap,” published on Aug. 23. “I was always nervous.  I knew very little about the business but was hungry to learn. ‘John, what should I read?’  He handed me his copy and said, ‘I want it back.’”

A big part of the book’s appeal for Blumenthal is the way it distinguishes between investors and speculators.

As Reminiscences of a Stock Operator implies, broadly diversified portfolios will always underperform the top-performing asset classes at any given time. And nowadays, Blumenthal says, advisors are often faced with restless clients who compare their total investment portfolio performance to a single index like the S&P 500 Index.

What Blumenthal learned when he first read that novel back in 1984 applies today, he says, and it’s advice he gives to his advisor clients who phone and want to talk about investor behavior.

“Our industry’s canned response is to say that ‘We’re in it for the long haul,’ though I think you’ll agree this answer is not enough for most clients. Let’s see if we can break this down and give your clients some real data,” writes Blumenthal, who founded CMG as a registered investment advisor in 1992. Today, CMG, based in Radnor, Pa., provides other RIAs, financial planners and institutions with managed accounts, mutual funds and variable annuities.

Advisors should ask their clients if they view themselves as investors or speculators, Blumenthal recommends. “Investing is about broad risk diversification; speculating is about taking targeted bets.  Both approaches are OK.  Which one [are they]?”

For investors, Blumenthal offers some sober data to share:

Further, from May 22 to June 24, the S&P 500 lost 5.6%, the MSCI EAFE lost 10.1%, MSCI Emerging Markets fell 15.3%, the Dow Jones/UBS Commodity index fell 4.5%, the U.S. 10-year T-note fell 4.4% and the Barclays U.S. TIPS index fell 7.1%.

That sort of data is enough to convince any in-it-for-the-long-haul investor to buckle up for a long and bumpy ride. And as for speculators? There are no guarantees, Blumenthal says, and he doesn’t know anybody who can pick winners trade after trade because such an animal doesn’t exist. 

“Few, even the greats, might make millions yet might lose the same on their next targeted bet.  If he is an investor, coach him back to plan.  If he is a speculator, there is a good chance he will not be your client for long,” Blumenthal advises. “This is a game of probabilities and while you might be 100% correct on a particular risk, you might just not have the time and inner belly to patiently live through the painful decline you’ll experience along the way to being right.”

---

Check out Are Trends Trending? on ThinkAdvisor.

3 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Big Stocks to Trade for Flat-Market Gains

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Parametric Sound

Parametric Sound (HEAR), an audio technology company, designs and markets audio peripherals for video game, personal computer and mobile platforms in North America, Europe, and Asia. This stock closed up 5.2% to $9.98 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $9.35-$10.05

52-Week Range: $7.58-$18.80

Thursday's Volume: 208,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 177,321

From a technical perspective, HEAR ripped higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $9.70 with above-average volume. This stock recently gapped down sharply from over $13 to under $9.50 with heavy downside volume. Following that move, shares of HEAR went on to print a new 52-week low at $7.58. This stock has now rebounded sharply off that $7.58 low and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if HEAR manages to take out its gap-down-day high of $10.05 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in HEAR as long as it's trending above support at $9 or at $8.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above $10.05 with volume that hits near or above 177,321 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then HEAR will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone from April that started above $13.

KaloBios Pharmaceuticals

KaloBios Pharmaceuticals (KBIO), biopharmaceutical company, primarily develops monoclonal antibody therapeutics for the treatment of respiratory diseases and cancer in the U.S. This stock closed up 3.3% to $1.88 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.78-$1.92

52-Week Range: $1.69-$6.55

Thursday's Volume: 167,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 210,676

From a technical perspective, KBIO bounced higher here right above its recent 52-week low of $1.69 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last two months and change, with shares moving lower from its high of $3.69 to its 52-week low of $1.69. During that downtrend, shares of KBIO have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of KBIO have now started to rebound off its 52-week low and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if KBIO manages to take out Thursday's intraday high of $1.92 and then once it clears more resistance at $2.03 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in KBIO as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $1.78 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 210,676 shares. If that breakout starts soon, then KBIO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.33 to its 50-day moving average of $2.41. Any high-volume move above $2.41 will then give KBIO a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.66 to $2.88, or even $3.

Solazyme

Solazyme (SZYM) operates as a homebuilder in Brazil. This stock closed up 3.7% to $9.52 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $9.12-$9.64

52-Week Range: $8.00-$15.00

Thursday's Volume: 707,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.44 million

From a technical perspective, SZYM bounced higher here right off some near-term support at $9 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last two months and change, with shares sliding lower from its 52-week high of $15 to its low of $8.90. During that downtrend, shares of SZYM have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of SZYM now look ready to rebound and reverse its downtrend to a new uptrend in the short-term. Market players should now look for a continuation move to the upside in the short-term if SZYM manages to take out Thursday's high of $9.64 to some more near-term overhead resistance at $10 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SZYM as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $9 or at $8.90 and then once it sustains a move or close above $9.64 to $10 with volume that hits near or above 1.44 million shares. If that move starts soon, then SZYM will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day moving average of $10.83 to its 50-day moving average of $11.16. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give SZYM a chance to tag $11.65 to $12.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Dividend Stocks Ready to Pay You More



>>A Horrible Chart to Trade for Wonderful Gains



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Saturday, May 24, 2014

The World Is Full Of Small Conspiracies

Many people are fascinated by the belief – or at least the prospect – of world dominating conspiracies. The Illuminati seems to regularly have a pronounced position in such fantasies. We should also pay due homage to the Knights Templar, the Freemasons, and the Bilderberg Group. Of course, there are others. When it comes to world domination, of equal substance is Spectre, K.A.O.S, and, topping the list, Hydra.

Back to the real world… when it comes to world domination, however, no one, no group, no grand conspiracy has ever been successful. Simply put, there's no one in charge. Complicating any search for a grand conspiracy is the fact that at the core of so many secret organizations is the exotic and even the arcane.

The esoteric with promises of majesty (sometimes even immortality) can make the imagination soar. It can be intoxicating and motivating. Unfortunately, as Umberto Eco exemplifies in has literary masterpiece, Foucault's Pendulum, the most powerful secret – the true underpinnings of these grand conspiracies – is "a secret without content."

The lack of world dominating conspiracy in no way discounts the existence of conspiracies. It's just that these grand conspiracies for a plethora of reasons, such as the unquestionable inability to effectively run such an extensive and influential bureaucracy secretly, do not exist. Instead, what are pervasive in society are small conspiracies. From illegal conclusion among technology companies to insider trading rings, and from corporate and political payoffs to organized crime syndicates working cooperatively, the world is littered with small conspiracies.

Small conspiracies are rampant inside and between some organizations and sometimes common in the financial services arena. There are leadership substitutions and a broad range of governmental and corporate espionage. You can no doubt come up with a multitude of examples, and if you're having trouble, just turn on the news.

Now, if the malicious element – the illegality and injurious nature – that defines, in part, a conspiracy was stripped away, we have some brilliant networking resulting in collaborative business at its finest. It's this superb networking that's foundational and critical to success of any small conspiracy.

Taking a step back… in critically examining the way self-made millionaires and some accomplished professional criminals build social networks to achieve their agendas, there's actually a high correlation in the nature of the strategic thinking and processes they employ. So, if you're looking to excel, creating and managing a non-malevolent conspiracy (i.e., a legal and ethically sound conspiracy) might very well get you the professional outcomes you're looking for.

Friday, May 23, 2014

HP May Cut Up to 16,000 More Jobs as Results Disappoint

Getty Images SAN FRANCISCO -- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) plans to cut as many as 16,000 more jobs in a major ramp-up of CEO Meg Whitman's years-long effort to turn around the personal computer-maker and relieve pressure on its profit margins. Whitman said the turnaround remained on track and her raised target reflected how HP continued to find areas to streamline across its broad portfolio, which encompasses computing, networking, storage and software. But some analysts wondered whether it signaled a worsening outlook for the coming year, or if more jobs may be cut. "The rationale makes sense," said RBC analyst Amit Daryanani. But "you do worry if there's a finality to this process, or if it's an ongoing thing that may affect morale at the end of the day. So far the trend has been worrisome." HP, whose sprawling global operations employ more than 250,000, estimated about three years ago when it first hatched its sweeping overhaul that it would need to shed 27,000 jobs. That number rose to 34,000 last year. On Thursday, it estimated another 11,000 to 16,000 more jobs needed to go, scattered across different countries and business areas. That took the grand total under Whitman's restructuring to 50,000. The Silicon Valley company is trying to reduce its reliance on PCs and move toward computing equipment and networking gear for enterprises, part of Whitman's effort to curtail revenue declines and return the world's No. 1 PC maker to growth. But that goal remains elusive. The company posted a disappointing 1 percent drop in quarterly revenue, as it struggled to maintain its grip on the shrinking personal computer market and weak corporate tech spending. That marked its 11th consecutive quarterly sales decline. Shares in HP closed down 2.3 percent at $31.78, after the company inadvertently posted the results on its website more than half an hour before the closing bell. A Pivotal Division Research jobs, which are vital for innovation and long-term growth, will continue to grow, Whitman stressed. HP is looking to cut back more in "areas not central to customer-facing and innovation agendas," she said in an interview, rather than areas like research. "That's not what we're doing here. You need to look at the R&D spending, which is up." HP recorded sales of $27.3 billion in its fiscal second quarter ended April 30, just shy of the $27.41 billion Wall Street had expected. Whitman said China remained a challenging region, though revenue from that country rose in the quarter. U.S. companies such as IBM (IBM) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) have blamed recent lackluster performances on a backlash against American companies in China, in the wake of U.S. spying allegations. On Thursday, HP forecast full-year earnings of $3.63 to $3.75 a share, compared with Wall Street's estimate for $3.71. It reported non-GAAP diluted net earnings of 88 cents a share in the second quarter, up 1 percent from a year earlier and about level with what analysts, on average, had expected.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Toyota recalls Sienna for tire, Lexus for brakes

Toyota Motor on Thursday recalled 370,000 Sienna minivans -- most of those a second time -- because the spare tire mounted under the vehicle might fall off and crash into following traffic.

And it recalled 10,500 2013-model Lexus GS 350 sedans because the cars, without warning or driver involvement, could suddenly apply the brakes and not illuminate the brake lights to warn following drivers.

In its third safety-flaw announcement Thursday, the big automaker said its dealers will have to reprogram airbag software on 2014 Highlander and Highlander hybrid crossover SUVs. The system can mistakenly classify all front seat passengers as small and light, meaning the airbags won't inflate forcefully enough to protect larger riders.

Those so-called smart airbag systems, widely used by automakers, employ sensors that are supposed to judge the size and heft of the passenger, and adjust the airbag inflation accordingly.

Toyota says the airbag matter isn't a recall, but instead is a "non-compliance" report, saying the vehicles don't meet a federal safety standard.

Toyota says it knows of no accidents, injuries or deaths involving any of the three defects.

Involved in the minivan recall: 2004-2011 Siennas, sold or originally registered in cold-weather states. Those states use a corrosive salt mixture to de-ice winter roads.

The mechanism holding the spare tire can be eaten away by the salt mixture, and the tire can fall off, Toyota said.

In April 2010, Toyota recalled 2004-2010 versions of the van for the same problem.

At that time, a splash shield was mounted underneath to deflect the corrosive de-icing mixture away from the spare, and rust-inhibitor was applied.

Some of those shields were installed incorrectly, Toyota said, and might not work, and the rust-inhibitor might be ineffective.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

No Surprise: Stocks Trade Up on Fed Yawner; Lorillard Leaps on Merger Talks

Stocks made back much of yesterday’s losses as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed nothing we hadn’t already known. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Microsoft (MSFT) led blue chips higher, while Tiffany (TIF), Lorillard (LO) and Netflix (NFLX) were the big gainers among large-company stocks.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 158.75 points, or 1%, to 16,533.06 today, while the S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 1,888.03. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8% to 4,131.54, while the small-company Russell 2000 finished up 0.5% at 1,103.63. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.03 percentage point to 2.54%.

Goldman Sachs rose 1.9% to $159.35 today, making it the biggest gainer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after announcing that it was seeking to sell its commodity warehouse business, while Microsoft gained 1.7% to $40.35 a day after launching its super-sized tablet computer. Microsoft was the second-largest percentage gainer in the Dow.

Tiffany surged 9.2% to $62.63 after raising its earnings guidance, while Netflix climbed 5.1% to $390.60 after announcing that it would expand into six European countries. Lorillard spiked 10% to $62.63 on reports that it’s in talks to be purchased by Reynolds American (RAI). Reynolds American gained 4.4% to $59.77.

As for the Fed minutes, let’s just say they caused investors to hit the snooze button. Pierpont Securities Stephen Stanley explains:

I found the April FOMC minutes to be unusually bland, perhaps not surprising since the April FOMC statement was virtually unchanged from the March communiqué…The two key topics of conversation were a special discussion of policy normalization and the usual discussion of the economic and policy outlook.

The former has been a topic of much speculation since the announcement that there was a joint Board of Governors/FOMC meeting at the beginning of the regular FOMC gathering.  This effort was part of "prudent planning" and "did not imply that normalization would necessarily begin sometime soon." … Meanwhile, the discussion on the economy held few surprises.  The outlook was said not to have changed materially since the March meeting.

Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes that the recent decline in Treasury yields has amounted to “a de facto rate cut.” He explains why:

This is effectively ade factorate cut by the Fed since this yield move would not have been possible with the new forward guidance on the future policy path. It’s akin to an exogenous positive shock to the economy, especially the rate-sensitive sectors (housing, autos, capital goods) — as if the Fed eased 50 basis points via the back end of the yield curve…This bond yield decline, contrary to reflecting a softer pace of economic activity ahead, is more likely going to bolster the macroeconomic outlook for the spring and summer months. So look through this corrective phase in equities and look forward to picking up cyclical and growth segments at better prices.

Looks like the market might finally be coming around to that point of view.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Top 5 Consumer Stocks To Invest In 2015

With shares of Macy�� (NYSE:M) trading around $46, is Macy’s an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let�� analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Macy���operates stores and Internet websites in the United States. It operates Macy�� and Bloomingdale�� stores and websites that sell a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico. As trends change, so does fashion, and Macy�� is one of the companies that has remained relevant over the last several years. Consumers will continue to explore the latest styles and Macy�� and Bloomingdale�� stores stand ready to provide excellent products.

Macy�� posted earnings that beat Wall Street�� expectations — however, it came up short on beating the revenue expectation. The revenue miss is a negative sign to investors who seek high growth out of the company.�Look for Macy�� to remain a leader in the industry for many years to come.

Top 5 Consumer Stocks To Invest In 2015: Nestle SA (NESN.VX)

Nestle SA is a Swiss Company engaged in the nutrition, health and wellness sectors. It is the holding company of the Nestle Group, which comprises subsidiaries, associated companies and joint ventures throughout the world. It has such business units as Food and Beverage, Nestle Waters and Nestle Nutrition. It is also active in the pharmaceutical sector. It divides its products into Powdered and liquid beverages, Water, Milk products and Ice cream, Nutrition, Prepared dishes and cooking aids, Confectionery, PetCare and Pharmaceutical products. In February 2011, the Company acquired CM&D Pharma Ltd.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael Calia]

    Post Holdings Inc.(POST) agreed to acquire the PowerBar and Musashi brands from Nestle SA(NESN.VX), further expanding the cereal maker’s position in the active nutrition category.

Top 5 Consumer Stocks To Invest In 2015: Vishay Precision Group Inc.(VPG)

Vishay Precision Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets components based on resistive foil technology, sensors, and sensor-based systems in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company?s products include precision foil resistors, foil strain gages, transducers and load cells, modules, instruments, weighing and control systems, and PhotoStress coatings and instruments; and sensors that convert mechanical inputs into an electronic signal for display, processing, interpretation, or control by the company?s instrumentation and systems products. Its products are used in waste management, bulk hauling, logging, scales manufacturing, engineering systems, pharmaceutical, oil, chemical, steel, paper, and food industries, as well as in military/aerospace, medical, agriculture, and construction markets. The company sells its products through original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, and independent distributors, as well as directly t o end-use customers. Vishay Precision Group, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Vishay Precision Group (NYSE: VPG  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Vishay Precision Group (NYSE: VPG  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

5 Best Asian Stocks To Own For 2015: K12 Inc (LRN)

K12 Inc. (K12), incorporated in December 1999, is a technology-based education company. K12 offers curriculum, software systems and educational services designed to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through 12th grade, or K-12. The Company provides a continuum of technology-based educational products and solutions to districts, public schools, private schools, charter schools and families. Its products include Curriculum, Pre-K and K-8 Courses, Online School Platform-Learning Management System, High School Courses, Innovative Learning Applications, School Management Systems and PEAK12. Its managed public schools includes Full-time virtual schools and Blended schools, which includes Flex schools, Passport schools, Discovery schools and Other blended schools. Its institutional Business includes K12 curriculum, Aventa curriculum, A+ curriculum, Middlebury joint venture, Pre-kindergarten and Post-secondary. Its international and private pay business includes Managed private schools, The Keystone School, George Washington University Online HS, K12 International Academy, IS Berne, WEB and Independent course sales (Consumer). In April 2011, it acquired the operations of the International School of Berne (IS Berne).

Curriculum

K12 has the digital curriculum portfolio for the K-12 online education industry. The K12 curriculum consists of online lessons, offline instructional kits and materials, and lesson guides and other ancillaries. The Company offers a catalog of courses designed to teach concepts to students from pre-kindergarten through 12th grade, as well as curriculum for use in post-secondary online programs. A single year-long K12 course generally consists of 120 to 180 instructional lessons. Each lesson is designed to last approximately 45 to 60 minutes, although students are able to work at their own pace. With the acquisition of the curriculum portfolios of KCDL (Aventa), AEC (A+) and Kaplan Virtual Education (KVE), as well as the MI! L joint venture, the Company has nearly 700 courses across kindergarten, elementary, middle and high school, including world languages. This combined portfolio contains over 100,000 hours of instructional content and over one million visual, audio and interactive instructional elements in the Company's asset repository.

The Company's K12 online lessons or curricula are accessed through a learning management platform, which the Company calls its Online School (OLS) for K- 8students and the eCollege platforms for high school students, as well as a number of other common industry platforms for students who access Aventa and A+ curricula. Many of the Company's courses utilize learning kits in conjunction with the online lessons to maximize the effectiveness of its learning systems. In addition to receiving access to the Company's online lessons through the Internet, each K-8 student receives a shipment of materials, including textbooks, art supplies, laboratory supplies (such as microscopes, scales, science specimens) and other reference materials which are referred to and incorporated in instruction throughout its curriculum. The Company's courses are generally paired with a lesson guide. Lesson guides work in coordination with the online lessons and include overview information for learning coaches, lesson objectives, lesson outlines and activities, answer keys to student exercises and suggestions for explaining difficult concepts to students.

Pre-K and K-8 Courses

From pre-kindergarten through 8th grade, the Company's courses are generally categorized into seven major subject areas: English and language arts, mathematics, science, history, art, music and world languages. The Company's curriculum includes all of the courses that students need to complete their core kindergarten through 8th grade education; a new pre-K offering students to core subjects through cross-curricular thematic units, building initial and fundamental relationships among concepts. Its learning! systems ! offer the flexibility for each student to take courses at different grade levels in a single academic year, providing flexibility for students to progress at their own level and pace within each subject area.

The first phase of the Company's K12 second generation elementary language arts program is designed to deliver interactivity and make instruction even more engaging while integrating rewards, interactive practice and a virtual world. The Company's Fundamentals of Geometry and Algebra course completes its K-8 math offering. These courses support students at various skill levels through targeted, timely remediation, embody the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) and include media integration. In addition, the flexibility of the Company's learning systems allows the Company to tailor its curriculum to state specific requirements. For example, the Company has developed 62 courses specifically created for the public schools standards in 13 states. In addition to the ongoing evolution of the Company's K-5 Math+ program, the Company has also created over 80 custom Math+ sequences to serve specific state needs. The Company continues to migrate K12 K-8 courses from its legacy content management system (CMS) to its new CMS.

Online School Platform-Learning Management System

For the Company's K12 curriculum users in grades K-8, the Company provides a learning management system, its OLS platform. The OLS platform is an adaptive, intuitive, Web-based software platform that provides access to the Company's online lessons, its lesson planning and scheduling tools, as well as its progress tracking tool which serves a key role in assisting parents and teachers in managing each student's progress. The OLS is also the central structure through which students, parents, teachers and administrators interact using K-mail and Class Connect (the Company's integrated synchronous session scheduler). Students, parents and teachers can access the Company's online tools and lessons through t! he OLS fr! om anywhere with an Internet connection. The Company licenses a third-party learning management system for uses in its high school program.

High School Courses

The curriculum available to high school students is broader and varies from student to student. Students also are able to select from a range of electives. The Company has augmented its lab program for lab science courses with the creation of alternate kit-free science labs for the formerly kit-based high school science labs in order to provide a more flexible and robust lab program across its physical science, earth science, biology, chemistry and physics courses. The Company's overall lab program includes traditional kit-based labs based on either shipped-in or household materials, virtual labs, video-based labs, data-collection and data-manipulation labs, and field studies. Across all subject areas, the K12 core curriculum accounts for approximately 90% of the Company's high school course enrollments. It also offers curriculum marketed as its Aventa Learning by K12 product line. Aventa courses are written to national academic standards and each of Aventa's 22 AP courses has been reviewed and approved by The College Board. Aventa's online courses are developed by subject matter experts designed by multimedia teams and delivered by high school instructors. Aventa classes are primarily delivered over the Internet and use a variety of interactive elements to keep students engaged throughout.

The Company has A+ courseware, which is in use in over 5,000 public and private K-12 schools, charter schools, colleges, correctional institutions, centers of adult literacy, military education programs and after-school learning centers. The A+nyWhere Learning System provides an integrated offering of instructional software and assessment for reading, mathematics, language arts, science, writing, history, government, economics and geography for grade levels K-12. In addition, AEC provides assessment testing and instructi! onal cont! ent for the General Educational Development (GED) test. AEC products are designed to provide for LAN, WAN and Internet delivery options and support Windows and Macintosh platforms. Spanish-language versions are available for mathematics and language arts for grade levels 1-6.

The Company offers online world language courses and summer immersion language instruction programs through its MIL joint venture. In addition to offering powerspeaK12 language courses, this venture also offers innovative, online language programs for high school and middle school students based on the Middlebury College pedagogy. The new courses use instructional tools such as animation, music, videos and other elements that immerse students in new languages. Beginner French, Chinese and Spanish for high school students, as well as Chinese, French, Latin, Spanish and German courses for middle and high school students are available and additional courses are in development. The joint venture has expanded the Middlebury-Monterey Language Academy (MMLA), a foreign language immersion summer program for middle and high school students, which includes a day academy for middle school students, as well as the Company's four-week residential academy with instruction in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian and Spanish at multiple college campuses.

Innovative Learning Applications

The Company has created tools that allow for more rapid mobile and tablet curriculum or content deployment across platforms for deeper markets penetration. Seven additional mobile applications were delivered during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), for a total of 15 applications available for download. These apps have been downloaded over 400,000 times. It offers applications for the iPhone, Android phones and Android tablet marketplaces, adapting many of its curriculum features for the mobile application space. An active educational games initiative is delivering new methods for engagement, practice and r! eview of ! K-12 concepts, including narrative/immersive styles, rewards, persistent data, complex algorithms. The Company has delivered a total of nine interactive games and an innovative review and practices portal called Noodleverse. Noodleverse includes over 1,700 activities and is designed for K-2 students in conjunction with a new language arts program.

The Company has delivered alternatives for its educational partners who desires materials-free curriculum. This includes converting over 59 existing materials-based high school Science labs into interactive virtual labs and video lab This laboratory is performed at a lab bench with all the materials and with the same procedures high school students would use in a physical chemistry laboratory. During fiscal 2012, the Company had converted 35 K12 textbooks used across 57 courses into an electronic format, including textbooks, reference guides, literature readers and lab manuals. This digital delivery ability enables the Company to offer options to the Company's customers through interactive online books that enhance the student's reading experience reinforce the student's learning approach and create a new method for delivering book and print materials. Each offline book is converted into an electronic book format with a custom user interface to be viewed through a standard Web browser or a commercially available electronic reader (Kindle and Nook).

The Company has learning management systems and can build courses that are adaptive, which enable individualized learning experiences as the course adapts at key points to student behavior and input. The Company's MARK12 reading remediation product captures individual students' successes and challenges as they practice phonemic awareness, alphabetic principles, accuracy and fluency, vocabulary and comprehension. The program serves the individual student more exercises, practice and review in areas of difficulty. During fiscal 2012, the Company launched a pilot program for school year call! ed Nation! al Math Lab, designed as a controlled study with randomly selected treatment and control groups from a pool of students in grades 5-10 identified as significantly below grade level in math. The Company continues to explore opportunities to enhance student engagement through strategic use of relevant multimedia. Multimedia is specifically used as appropriate for the subject matter.

School Management Systems

School Management Systems (SAMS) is the Company's student information system. SAMS is integrated with the OLS and several other systems, including the Company's Online Enrollment System that allows parents to complete school enrollment forms online and its order management system that generates orders for learning kits and computers to be delivered to students. SAMS stores student-specific data and is used for a range of functions, including enrolling students in courses, assigning progress marks and grades, tracking student demographic data, and generating student transcripts. The Company has TotalView a range of online applications that provides administrators, teachers, parents and students a unified view of student progress, attendance, communications, and learning kit shipment tracking. TotalView includes a means of documenting student engagement in required classroom activities, identification of those students struggling with grade level state content standards, and previous year's performance on state tests. TotalView also includes K-mail, the Company's internal communications system. Through K-mail, administrators and teachers can communicate electronically with learning coaches and students. TotalView also includes an enrollment processing and tracking tool that allows it to closely monitor and manage the enrollment process for new students.

PEAK12

The Company has an online learning solution called PEAK12. This solution simplifies a district's management of online learning by consolidating multiple solutions on a single platform. It allow! s adminis! trators and teachers to manage enrollments, programs and performance tracking, alerts and reporting across multiple online solutions from a single solution. In addition, through the PEAK12 library, districts can search, build, provision and publish content or course modifications or new course solutions using various online learning assets. PEAK12 provides unparalleled capabilities for districts wanting to operate multiple solutions or catalogs from a single place and offers personalization features that can be managed at the district, school or teacher level.

The Company competes with DeVry, Inc., Pearson PLC, White Hat Management, LLC, National Network of Digital Schools Management Foundation Inc., Apex Learning Inc., Compass Learning, E2020 Inc., OdysseyWare, PLATO Learning, Inc., Rosetta Stone Inc., Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, McGraw-Hill Companies, Pearson PLC., The Laurel Springs School, the National Connections Academy and Florida Virtual School.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Eric Volkman]

    K12 (NYSE: LRN  ) will soon have a new CFO. Harry Hawks has given notice that he will leave the position by the end of the company's current fiscal year. He plans to continue to assist the firm during the succession period and beyond, working as a consultant, in order to smooth the transition to a new CFO.

  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Less than two weeks after losing CFO Harry Hawks, K12 (NYSE: LRN  ) has named a replacement. James Rhyu will take up that post, and also serve as executive vice president starting in early June.

Top 5 Consumer Stocks To Invest In 2015: Tesco PLC (TSCDY)

Tesco PLC, incorporated on November 27, 1947, is engaged in retailing and associated activities in the United Kingdom, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Republic of Ireland, India, Malaysia, Poland, Slovakia, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The Company also provides retail banking and insurance services through its subsidiary, Tesco Bank. The Company�� operations in the United Kingdom is the within the Company, with over 3,000 stores. The Company�� in-store picking model is complemented by a small number of specialized dotcom-only stores, which allow the Company to respond to customer demand. The Company�� Click & Collect service is a part of its multichannel offering and enables customers to pick up their shopping when and where it suits them. It has over 1,500 Click & Collect collection points for general merchandise and over 150 Grocery Drive-thrus in the United Kingdom.

The Company�� operations in India include sourcing and its service centre, as well as a franchise arrangement with Tata Group. The Company�� Hindustan Service Centre (HSC) is the global services arm for Tesco worldwide, providing business services for Tesco operations globally. Tesco HSC is engaged in creating and executing strategic initiatives covering information technology (IT), Financial, Commercial and Property, among others. The Company also provides 80% of the stock sold by Star Bazaar, both food and non-food, sourced through its distribution centre in Mumbai. This distribution centre also provides wholesale products to traditional Indian retailers, kirana stores, restaurants and other businesses, providing small farmers and other suppliers with a way to sell their wares to the local market.

The Company has an online business and 22 of virtual stores in South Korean subways and bus stops, which help time-pressed customers, shop on-the-go using their smartphones. Tesco Lotus is its international business, serving over 11 million customers every week in over 1,400 stores. Tesco Bank! offer a range of simple personal banking products, principally-mortgages, credit cards, personal loans, and savings.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By G. A. Chester]

    LONDON -- Top British supermarket�Tesco� (LSE: TSCO  ) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY  ) is due to announce its annual results on April 17.

  • [By Mark Rogers]

    Today, I'm looking at the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for�Tesco� (LSE: TSCO  ) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY  ) , the FTSE 100 supermarket giant. All my figures are courtesy of S&P Capital IQ.

  • [By Chris Nials]

    LONDON -- Tesco� (LSE: TSCO  ) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY  ) is expected to report a 10% drop in profits, as well as a 1 billion-pound writedown on its U.S. operations, when it reports results tomorrow. Chris Nials and Motley Fool analyst Nate Weisshaar discuss how investors should be thinking about this.

  • [By Royston Wild]

    LONDON -- I am backing supermarket leviathan�Tesco� (LSE: TSCO  ) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY  ) to put the difficulties of the past 12 months behind it and return to growth in the medium term. Shares in the firm have risen 15% since the start of 2013, and I am expecting them to gain traction as its strategy to rebuild its British operations comes to fruition.

Top 5 Consumer Stocks To Invest In 2015: Winnebago Industries Inc.(WGO)

Winnebago Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells recreation vehicles primarily for leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company offers motor homes, which are self-propelled mobile dwellings that provide living accommodations for approximately seven persons and include kitchen, dining, sleeping, and bath areas, as well as a lounge; and optional equipment accessories, such as generators, home theater systems, king-size beds, upholstery, and interior equipment. It manufactures motor homes constructed directly on medium- and heavy-duty truck chassis, which include engine and drivetrain components; and on van-type chassis onto which the motor home manufacturer constructs a living area with access to the driver's compartment under the Winnebago and Itasca brand names, as well as panel-type vans with sleeping, kitchen, and/or toilet facilities under the Era brand name. The company also produces original equipment manufacturing parts, including extruded aluminum and other component products for other manufacturers and commercial vehicles. Winnebago Industries markets its motor homes through independent dealers primarily in the United States and Canada. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Forest City, Iowa.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    The CEO of recreation vehicle (RV) stock Winnebago Industries, Inc (NYSE: WGO) recently appeared on CNBC to say that the economy is improving for RV makers, meaning its time to take a closer look at the stock plus take a look at the performance of other small cap RV stocks like Drew Industries, Inc (NYSE: DW), Skyline Corporation (NYSEMKT: SKY) and Thor Industries, Inc (NYSE: THO).

  • [By David Sterman]

    I took a close look at all of the companies that appeared in the first part of this series, and there were some great companies in the mix. If price were no object, I'd be a huge fan of:

    Oceaneering (NYSE: OII), which is prospering form the ongoing trends toward undersea naval warfare and undersea oil drilling. Oceaneering is poised to grow at a sustained double-digit pace, which is something few other defense contractors can say. Cree (Nasdaq: CREE): LED lighting is a revolutionary game-changer, and Cree's heavy emphasis on R&D is leading the charge towards ever-lower prices for these low-energy light sources that also have remarkable longevity compared to regular bulbs. Still, profit margin gains may be tough in a very competitive environment.  Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII): If Winnebago's (NYSE: WGO) recreational vehicles are suitable for retirees, Polaris has become the go-to name for activity-oriented vehicles. Notably, it has a revenue base that is four times larger than Winnebago as well. If S&P wants to position for future demographic trends, then Polaris is a great choice.

    I love these companies, but I don't love their stock prices, and I'd prefer to wait for some sort of pullback before singing their praises. That said, there are two investment ideas that hold great appeal on their own. If they get added to the S&P 500, then they are also set up for a timely trade.