Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Obama's China climate deal: Job killer or worth the cost?

obama xi jinping handshake President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping after announcing a deal on climate change. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) President Obama's deal with China to have both countries make deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will cost the U.S. economy tens of billions of dollars a year, according to critics.

And advocates of the agreement say that even if those cost estimates are correct, it would be money well spent.

The case against the deal: "Our economy can't take the president's ideological War on Coal, which will increase the squeeze on middle-class families and struggling miners," said Senator Mitch McConnell, who is about to become Senate majority leader and comes from the coal belt state Kentucky.

Studies prepared on behalf of industry groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce say Obama's efforts thus far to cut greenhouse gasses will cost the economy between $40 billion to $52 billion a year.

The Chamber estimates that the economy will lose an average of 224,000 jobs a year through 2030 due to the weaker economy.

Cook: New Apple HQ 'greenest' on the planet   Cook: New Apple HQ 'greenest' on the planet

The case for the deal: The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that a failure to address climate change could cost the economy about $150 billion a year.

For instance, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 cost about $157 billion, while Superstorm Sandy in 2012 caused about $50 billion in damage. Last year's drought in the West and Great Plains cost $10 billion, while floods in Illinois and Colorado cost another $3 billion.

"Companies are concerned about direct impacts, such as extreme weather damaging facilities or disrupting power, and also indirect impacts, such as higher prices for commodities or insurance," said Janet Peace, vice president of markets and business strategy at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

Peace added that 90% of the nation's largest companies now list climate change or extreme weather as a business risk, and said there's no benefit in delaying action to reduce greenhouse gases.

"The sooner we act, the less costly it will be," she said.

Part of the way the countries plan to cut greenhouse emissions is through more efficient cars and appliances. That can produce sa! vings that balance out the costs of cutting carbon emissions.

The White House estimates that new efficiency standards for appliances will save about $30 billion a year on average through 2030, while improved mileage rules for automakers will save $1.7 trillion through a combination of lower gas prices and reduced gas consumption.

Leonardo DiCaprio challenges UN on climate change

Is China's favorite climate excuse still valid?

Friday, November 7, 2014

Ron Muhlenkamp's Quarterly Memorandum To Investors

My first draft of this letter, which I wrote three weeks ago began with:

Europe has not solved its problems Nor has Japan; Nor has China; Nor has the U.S.

The rest of that draft is now obsolete.

Since mid-September, several items have changed—some economic, some market-related, some psychological.

Economically…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its estimate of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth going forward. Germany (the strongest economy in Europe) has reported disappointing numbers, particularly in capital goods. It looks like Europe is back in recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) lowered its estimates of U.S. GDP growth for the next four years. Crude oil, which was trading in a range of $100-$110/barrel, fell to $82/barrel The surprise was an announcement by Saudi Arabia that they would not try to keep the price above $100/barrel. This is a change from their prior policy.

Markets…

Many hedge funds are having a poor year and are facing redemptions. CalPERS (California Public Employees' Retirement System) announced that they were withdrawing $25 billion from hedge funds. This drives "forced selling" by those funds. The difficulty is estimating the size of the forced selling. Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields fell from a range of 2.40%-2.6% to (briefly) below 2 percent. A huge move in a short period of time, the headline is "A Flight to Quality."

(Mostly) Psychological…

The battle against ISIS in the Middle East. Ebola and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC): It appears that the Center is not prepared for disease control.

All of this together resulted in stock market declines of 7-12% in a month, depending on which index you measure. The size of this "correction" was not unexpected, but the short time frame was unusual. On some days the forced selling appeared to feed on itself and bordered on panic liquidation. As I write this letter on 10/17, this selling has abated, at least for the time being. The good news is that we raised some cash coming into this period, and