M&A Mania Comes to Tobacco as Reynolds American Said to Target Lorillard

Merger activity has been good news for both acquirer and acquired, so why shouldn’t tobacco get in the game? It might be, as reports suggest that Reynolds American (RAI) could be making a play for Lorillard (LO).

Reuters

Wells Fargo’s Bonnie Herzog and team consider the possibilities:

Given the size of a potential acquisition of Lorillard would be quite large, we question how a bid from [Reynolds American] would be financed. Therefore, we think a more likely deal could be a merger between [Lorillard] and [Reynolds American] rather than an acquisition. Also, there has been speculation that British American Tobacco (BTI), which currently owns ~42% of [Reynolds American's] stock, could take a majority stake in [Reynolds American] after the standstill ends in July 2014. While we believe the most likely scenario is that [British American Tobacco] and [Reynolds American] could reach a strategic partnership to market/sell e-cigs globally, we wouldn't rule out [British American Tobacco] taking a majority stake in [Reynolds American]. Furthermore, if this occurs, [British American Tobacco] could help finance a potential acquisition of [Lorillard].

Herzog considers Lorillard her top pick, with or without a deal.

Shares of Lorillard have jumped 4.6% to $51.29 at 1:32 p.m. today, while Reynolds American has gained 2.5% to $52.12 and British American Tobacco has dropped 1.1% to $107.62. Altria Group (MO), meanwhile, has risen 0.4% to $36.43 and Philip Morris International (PM) has declined 0.9% to $80.21.