Saturday, August 9, 2014

Chipotle Mexican Grill: It Doesn’t Get Any Better Than This

It’s been a very good year for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which has gained 26% so far this year. But is this as good as it gets?

Longbow’s Alton Stump thinks it is. He explains why he downgraded shares of Chipotle Mexican grill to Neutral from Buy:

Our outlook on Chipotle's fundamentals undoubtedly remains positive. Chipotle's impressive same-store sales recovery over the last 4-5 quarters was driven almost entirely by accelerated traffic, which we believe helped set the stage for Chipotle to implement a mid single-digit list price increase during late 2Q14.

Chipotle's industry-leading same-store sales growth potential, cash-on-cash return profile, double-digit new store story and loyal consumer following justify a multiple well ahead of its peer average. However, with Chipotle's shares trading ~35% higher since early May, we believe the company's positive fundamentals are already baked into Chipotle's share price.

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill have dropped 0.4% to $669.68 at 1:43 p.m. today.

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